Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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424 FXUS64 KFWD 041743 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon though Friday Night/ Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon but changes are on the way. Temperatures at this hour have climbed into the lower 90s with heat indices just above 100 degrees. We`ll top out with actual air temperatures just above 100 later this afternoon. Farther to our north, a cold front is draped across northern Oklahoma and will continue to slide south through the afternoon as stronger ridging shifts eastward and a shortwave digs through the Central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon to our north and drift toward the Red River after dark. The consensus among the short term guidance is that robust convection to our north will send an outflow boundary southward after midnight with the main line of storms weakening. Renewed convective development will occur along this boundary and the actual cold front on Friday morning mainly north of I-20. This activity should drift south through the I-20 corridor through midday with additional storms developing farther south later in the day. We will also be watching the low potential that thunderstorms don`t actually weaken overnight tonight and drift southward, entering North Texas after midnight and continuing through the early morning hours. Given this is the lower probability scenario, we`ve raised PoPs on Friday to 40-60% across the I-20 corridor with PoPs shifting southward through the day. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be diurnally driven with a decrease in activity Friday evening and night. Along with the increased rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will be considerably cooler than the last several days with highs topping out in the lower 90s in most locations. Some areas closer to the Red River may remain in the 80s. A period of cooler and more unsettled weather looks to continue into early next week. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ Update: No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus, the weather discussion below is still valid. A cold front pushing into North Texas on Friday along with disturbances passing through the weak NW flow aloft will lead to almost daily rainfall chances for most areas and near to below normal temperatures for all areas through Day 7/Wednesday. Current forecast precipitation totals for this period will generally range from 0.5-1.0 inch across North Texas and 1.0-2.0 inches across Central Texas. 12 Previous Discussion: /Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/ After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover, rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will continue well into next week. The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the activity may survive through the night as the front enters North Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time. Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential, but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2 inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall. As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue to assess this potential as Beryl approaches. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail this afternoon and evening with south winds around 10 kt but a cold front will approach the region later tonight. Thunderstorms should develop along a cold front to the north of the D10 airspace later this afternoon with most of the activity remaining tied to the frontal boundary. This front will slide southward into North Texas on Friday with scattered showers/storms becoming more likely Friday morning through midday. A wind shift to the north-northeast will accompany the frontal boundary. Outside of any convective areas, VFR will prevail. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 79 91 75 93 / 0 20 60 20 20 Waco 99 77 95 75 92 / 0 5 50 20 40 Paris 98 75 93 71 93 / 0 40 40 10 20 Denton 102 76 90 72 93 / 0 30 60 10 20 McKinney 100 77 90 73 93 / 0 30 60 10 20 Dallas 101 79 92 76 93 / 0 20 60 20 20 Terrell 98 77 91 72 92 / 0 20 50 20 20 Corsicana 100 78 94 75 93 / 0 10 40 20 30 Temple 99 76 96 75 93 / 0 0 30 20 40 Mineral Wells 102 76 91 71 91 / 0 20 60 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$