Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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166 FXUS64 KFWD 051111 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 611 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made to the forecast this morning after updating it with the latest data. Bonnette Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/ A summertime cold front is expected to move across the region today, bringing an end to the season`s first heat wave. As is typical with any front at this time of the year, showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Surface dew point analysis indicates that the front is still in northern Oklahoma/West Texas, but an outflow boundary from earlier convection has created a northerly wind shift across parts of North Texas early this morning. A cluster of showers and storms will develop near/just behind the cold front over West Texas/Western Oklahoma in the pre- dawn hours that will help drive the front (and an attendant strong outflow boundary) south. Largely disorganized convection will accompany the front as it moves across the region today. The front should move into Central Texas late in the day, then stall and start to wash out late tonight and Saturday. The severe threat today is low, but not zero. This is particularly for areas south of I-20 where diurnal destabilization will favor a <5% chance of damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Today`s storms will be very efficient rain makers, so if a storm develops over any urban corridors, short-lived minor flooding will be likely. Most of the convection will wane with the loss of heating this evening. A resurgence over West Texas is expected late tonight into early Saturday morning. Most of the precip will remain to our west, but there is a 30-40% chance of showers in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Most of North Texas` temperatures this afternoon will be 10-15 degrees below yesterday. The same can not be said for Central Texas where highs are still expected to peak in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will climb near our Heat Advisory criteria, but lack of confidence regarding when the cold front/outflow moves through has precluded our issuance of a Heat Advisory for any part of our area. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ Update: The forecast trends discussed below remain on track with no notable departures from the anticipated pattern in the evening guidance. All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend and into early next week as Hurricane Beryl moves around the southern and western periphery of the weakening ridge over the Southeast. Though uncertainty continues in the forecast track, strength and speed of Beryl, we are beginning to see a moderate uptick in cumulative rainfall estimates for next week. In general, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected through Thursday night with lesser amounts west of Highway 281. There is currently about a 10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches across portions of Central Texas. These amounts have been and will likely continue to trend higher in response to inland track adjustments over the next few days. 12 Previous Discussion: /Saturday Through Next Week/ After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also see impacts from a tropical system. The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The more organized convection will be associated with the frontal boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale, guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally mild/wet pattern. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Light and variable winds will continue for the next couple hours until a pronounced northerly wind shift moves through around mid- morning. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across West Texas and Oklahoma that will make a run at our TAF terminals today. Our confidence regarding the timing of the thunderstorms remains low, however the threat of direct terminal impacts is high enough to warrant a TEMPO for on-station TS early this afternoon. The current timing is largely a prog of the cluster of storms near Lawton since the CAM guidance does not have a good handle on the ongoing convection. There should be a lull in convective activity this evening, but scattered showers are possible in the early morning hours toward the tail-end of the TAF period. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 75 92 76 95 / 50 30 20 0 20 Waco 95 76 92 75 95 / 40 30 40 5 20 Paris 90 71 92 71 92 / 40 20 20 5 20 Denton 89 72 92 73 95 / 50 20 20 5 20 McKinney 90 72 92 73 94 / 50 30 20 5 20 Dallas 92 76 92 76 96 / 50 30 20 5 20 Terrell 91 73 91 73 93 / 50 30 30 5 20 Corsicana 95 76 93 76 95 / 50 30 40 5 20 Temple 98 75 94 75 96 / 30 20 40 10 20 Mineral Wells 89 72 91 72 95 / 60 30 20 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$