Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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341 FXUS64 KFWD 060655 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 155 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ This morning will start on the cool side of average for most in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Parts of western North Texas will start the day 7-10 degrees below average with lows in the mid 60s while the rest of the area starts in the low to mid 70s. Yesterday`s cold front was able to move as far south as the Hill Country, but it will start to mix out this afternoon, then fully wash out tonight/early Sunday morning. Unfortunately, this means we`ll return to near seasonal norms this afternoon with highs topping out in the low 90s. Meager mid-level ascent around 700 mb should develop a few showers across the area early this morning. Limited instability should keep the threat of lightning low. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon across Central Texas, mainly in the vicinity of the surface front. All storms should end with the loss of heating this evening. South flow will return tonight and start to draw warm, moist air north in advance of our next weather-maker expected to move into the area Sunday night into Monday. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ /Next Week/ Our cold front will retreat north as a warm front on Sunday as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest and a lee surface trough strengthens, with the boundary eventually stalling across Oklahoma. This will heat things up temporarily, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce max heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range. A few spots may exceed 105, particularly in the southeast where the influx of tropical moisture associated with Beryl could make conditions exceptionally humid. At this time, however, it looks like the localized nature and brief time-frame of these conditions will likely preclude the need for a Heat Advisory. For those who missed out on rainfall with the ongoing system, more opportunities will arrive next week as aforementioned shortwave emerges in the Plains, the front returns south as a cold front, and Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches from the south. Rain chances associated with the front will be mainly Sunday night through Monday, while those associated with the tropical system will be primarily Monday through Tuesday. This scenario is based on the latest operational model solutions (regarding the movement of Beryl), which match closely with the official NHC forecast. The severe weather threat appears low at this time, though there could be some strong winds late Sunday/early Monday as convection initiating along the front in Oklahoma approaches, particularly if upscale growth takes place and a cold pool develops. Heavy rain will become the main concern as Beryl begins to interact with the slow moving front in the Monday-Tuesday period. Eastern portions of Central Texas will be nearest the track of Beryl and will have the best potential of seeing heavy rain. Another thing to keep in mind will be the potential brief spin-up tornadoes, which could occur in rain bands where any surface instability is attained. Showers and storms will end from west to east late Tuesday-Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl get picked up by another shortwave trough and carried northeast into the Mississippi Valley. Weak troughing will linger overhead in the wake of the tropical system, bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures and low rain chances Wednesday through next weekend. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR and light north flow will prevail for most of the day. A SCT to BKN cloud deck around 10-15 kft will develop a few showers early this morning with most of this activity remaining south/west of D10. These showers should brush by ACT near/after sunrise this morning. A few hour lull in precip activity is expected until scattered storms develop this afternoon near the cold front south and east of ACT (and D10). The chance of a storm impacting ACT is around 10%, so VCTS was not included in the TAF. Light south flow will return to the D10 terminals this afternoon, and this evening at ACT. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 93 77 96 75 / 40 10 0 20 30 Waco 66 92 76 95 76 / 40 30 5 10 20 Paris 69 93 72 92 71 / 10 10 0 30 40 Denton 65 93 75 96 72 / 40 10 0 20 30 McKinney 70 92 74 95 72 / 40 10 0 20 30 Dallas 72 93 78 96 75 / 50 10 0 20 30 Terrell 71 93 74 94 73 / 40 20 5 20 20 Corsicana 71 93 76 95 76 / 50 30 5 20 20 Temple 68 93 75 96 76 / 20 40 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 63 93 72 96 72 / 20 10 0 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$