570
FXUS63 KFSD 071922
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
222 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through sunset
  this evening. While the threat for severe weather is very low,
  small hail and a brief funnel cloud would be possible.

- Unsettled weather continues through the first half of this
  week with spotty afternoon to early evening showers/storms
  Sunday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected.

- Cooler than normal temperatures for early July through the
  early part of next week, but trending warmer and more humid by
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Afternoon/Evening: Forecast sounding again show up to roughly 1000
J/kg of largely uncapped MLCAPE with at least modest forcing
courtesy of next vort lobe evident on WV imagery spinning southward
through central/western Dakotas. Instability and shear (25-30kts)
not as impressive as yesterday, nor is forcing as dynamic, so while
I couldn`t completely discount a stronger storm or two, severe
weather much less likely. Outside of some small hail, a second
concern would be a rogue funnel cloud with some signal in the
sfc vorticity/0-3 km MLCAPE overlap. This activity should fade
through the second half of the evening with loss of daytime
heating.

Overnight: Still some hints of some patchy fog as winds again go
light and variable but HREF probabilities not as high as yesterday
and so have patchy fog mention more confined.

Monday through Wednesday: A rather stagnant pattern as region
remains on the backside of the upper level trough and thus will
maintain low end diurnally driven shower chances each afternoon and
early evening. These look to be most prevalent near and especially
east of I-29. Temperatures gradually warm a degree or two each day
but generally upper 70s to mid 80s for afternoon highs.

Thursday through Saturday: Upper level ridging builds eastward
through the second half of the week into the weekend and with it
will bring warming temperatures and increasing humidity levels as
southerly return flow intensifies. No significant precipitation
drivers but an occasional wave in the initial mid level northwest
flow could ruin this period from being completely dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should once
again develop by mid to late afternoon, although are expected to
be less organized than yesterday`s activity. At this time, any
better coverage is expected to be south of I-90 and thus only
have mention of -TSRA at KSUX although KFSD/KHON do also stand a
lower chance of a hit or miss shower or thunderstorm from mid
afternoon through mid evening.

At least some hints of some patchy fog again into Monday morning
although it appears lower confidence than the last few mornings
and thus have left mention out in this TAF set.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kalin
AVIATION...Kalin