Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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570 FXUS63 KFSD 071922 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 222 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through sunset this evening. While the threat for severe weather is very low, small hail and a brief funnel cloud would be possible. - Unsettled weather continues through the first half of this week with spotty afternoon to early evening showers/storms Sunday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected. - Cooler than normal temperatures for early July through the early part of next week, but trending warmer and more humid by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Afternoon/Evening: Forecast sounding again show up to roughly 1000 J/kg of largely uncapped MLCAPE with at least modest forcing courtesy of next vort lobe evident on WV imagery spinning southward through central/western Dakotas. Instability and shear (25-30kts) not as impressive as yesterday, nor is forcing as dynamic, so while I couldn`t completely discount a stronger storm or two, severe weather much less likely. Outside of some small hail, a second concern would be a rogue funnel cloud with some signal in the sfc vorticity/0-3 km MLCAPE overlap. This activity should fade through the second half of the evening with loss of daytime heating. Overnight: Still some hints of some patchy fog as winds again go light and variable but HREF probabilities not as high as yesterday and so have patchy fog mention more confined. Monday through Wednesday: A rather stagnant pattern as region remains on the backside of the upper level trough and thus will maintain low end diurnally driven shower chances each afternoon and early evening. These look to be most prevalent near and especially east of I-29. Temperatures gradually warm a degree or two each day but generally upper 70s to mid 80s for afternoon highs. Thursday through Saturday: Upper level ridging builds eastward through the second half of the week into the weekend and with it will bring warming temperatures and increasing humidity levels as southerly return flow intensifies. No significant precipitation drivers but an occasional wave in the initial mid level northwest flow could ruin this period from being completely dry. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should once again develop by mid to late afternoon, although are expected to be less organized than yesterday`s activity. At this time, any better coverage is expected to be south of I-90 and thus only have mention of -TSRA at KSUX although KFSD/KHON do also stand a lower chance of a hit or miss shower or thunderstorm from mid afternoon through mid evening. At least some hints of some patchy fog again into Monday morning although it appears lower confidence than the last few mornings and thus have left mention out in this TAF set. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kalin AVIATION...Kalin