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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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443 FXUS65 KFGZ 171736 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1036 AM MST Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues across the region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with typical afternoon winds. && .UPDATE...Current forecast is in good shape. Copious moisture still in place south of the Rim, with hirez guidance indicating a bit more instability (CAPE) today focused just south of the Rim as has been the case the past couple days. Today should be a bit more active, with heavy rain, flash floods, and gusty winds as the primary threats. Those areas where rain has fallen already (generally just south of the Rim in Gila County, and portions of Yavapai) will be more vulnerable to flash flooding due to the saturated soils. && .PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/...High pressure is centered across New Mexico early this morning but will start to shift slightly to the west over the next several days. For today...The high remains centered over NM early this morning, though its location will start to slide a bit to the west through the day. Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected with the best activity along and south of the Mogollon Rim with isolated showers remaining possible across northern areas through this evening. PWATs remain highest south of the Mogollon Rim with values around 1.0-1.3" while areas to the north remain drier and values are generally less than 0.8". CAPE values remain higher south of the Rim (>1000 J/kg) with lower values (<500 J/kg) elsewhere. Strong outflow winds and heavy rainfall are the main hazards, though small hail cannot be ruled out. As we head through the rest of the week, the high will continue to drift to the west and settling over NV/CA, though it may wobble a bit back and forth through that time. This will impact just how active the monsoon is across our region as the flow will shift from more of a southeast/southwest flow to more of northerly flow. Expect chances to remain isolated to scattered across the state, though just where it remains the most active will vary from day to day as the location of the high will be the main driver for just how much convection we see and where it initiates each day. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the week with the afternoon high temps varying from day to day. Cloud cover and convection will play a role and this will will likely limit just how hot it gets each day. While it certainly starts to feel like it heats up as we head into the weekend, it looks to be near to slightly above normal for late July and no heat headlines are anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 17/18Z through Thursday 18/18Z...Another round of scattered thunderstorms today mainly along and south of a KGCN - KRQE line, with isolated storms further north. Brief MVFR conditions in heavy rain and strong outflow winds in and around storms. Outside of storms, VFR continues with varying wind directions generally 10-15 kts or less. OUTLOOK...Thursday 18/18Z through Saturday 20/18Z...Daily chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic outflow wind possible in and around TS. Otherwise, VFR with winds generally 10-15 kts or less. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Isolated to scattered showers and storms will each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds generally variable 5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above normal temperatures. Friday through Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers and storms will each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds generally variable 5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above normal temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...BAK/Humphreys AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff