967
FXUS63 KFGF 090329
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1029 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat builds in for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper
  80s and 90s along with humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A few lingering showers continue across Cass County. Impacts
will be minimal as lightning will continue to diminish. Quiet
weather will persist overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue. Within the
weakly sheared regime, showers and storms have for the most part
struggled to stay together. Multiple outflow boundaries also
exist and are creating pockets of gusty winds. Severe storms
remain unlikely and the primary impacts will be gusts to 20-30
mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft continues through mid-week, with most
ensemble members in good agreement on a pretty vigorous
shortwave digging down tomorrow afternoon. The large upper ridge
that is currently roasting the western CONUS will begin to
slowly push further east into the Rockies/Western Plains. Timing
not certain at this point, but several ridge riders coming down
late week and into the weekend could bring stronger storms than
we have been seeing and much warmer temperatures.

...Widely scattered/scattered showers and storms today and
tomorrow...

Even with only a very minor ripple evident on water vapor, with
surface based CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms have developed across our northern counties
this afternoon. Like previous days, with no bulk shear, the
storms have been remaining below severe impacts, producing
lightning and heavy downpours due to their slow movement,
although a few could bring some pea sized hail. Convection
should taper off after sunset as the shortwave moves southeast
out of the area. With a stronger shortwave tomorrow, more
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and be fairly
similar in character to today. With shear around 15 kts, the
main threats will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
Cannot completely rule out another weak shortwave for Wednesday,
but at this point more of the CAMs keep precip to our east so
will have it drying out for now.

...Heat Late Week...

Upper ridging will shift eastward, although still a bit of
uncertainty how far east it will set up. Warmer temperatures
look to have fairly high probabilities, with over 90 degrees
possible. Humidity will also be increasing, and although heat
index values are not currently showing headline worthy values
the Heat Risk maps are up to major for our area on Saturday.
There is also the possibility of some ridge riding shortwaves
that could bring some thunderstorm impacts for late week and
into the weekend, although predictability still too low to
start messaging at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Smoke will filter into the area from the north through the TAF
period, potentially pushing TAF sites into MVFR status. It is
uncertain if/when this will occur so for now it has not been
placed in the 06z routine TAF. Thunderstorms will form again
tomorrow afternoon and will be spotty in nature, but may impact
some TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux