999
FXUS63 KFGF 190841
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
341 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
 weekend and into next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Synopsis...

Ridging prevails through much of the period across the western
CONUS, with the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest residing
downstream of the ridge. North to northwest flow at the H5 level
will continue through the weekend and into next week, with little to
no support for low to mid-level moisture return into the region. As
such, we are likely to see mainly scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with little support for organized or severe
convection. Any stronger storms would be tied to diurnal heating,
but could potentially support small hail and gusty winds.

Ensemble guidance develops an upper low by the early to middle part
of next week, which could serve to help flatten the H5 pattern
heading into late next week. This remains rather uncertain at this
time, with timing being the greatest uncertainty as several ensemble
members stall the upper low before it can create any meaningful
change in the pattern. Overall, we can expect a continuation of
generally warmer than average temperatures, along with nearly daily
chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Pretty much stuck with the 00z set of TAFs. No longer as
confident that any overnight shower/storm activity will affect
KFAR, so removed that mention. The trend in the CAMs has been to
show this activity staying west and southwest of KFAR. The
latest model guidance is also looking weaker (maybe less
coverage as well) for any afternoon convection. With less
overall confidence, went ahead and removed any mention of VCTS
in the afternoon at the TAF sites. Something stray could still
hit a TAF site, but the confidence is just too low to keep it
mentioned.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Godon