565
FXUS63 KFGF 191450
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
 weekend and into next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Showers and thunderstorms that formed over Grand Forks area have
moved off to the southeast and have mostly dissipated. More
shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to move down out of
Canada. Made a few minor tweaks to POPs, but should continue to
see an overall trend of increasing coverage as we head towards
peak heating this afternoon. No severe impacts expected.

UPDATE
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Very little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity this
morning across the forecast area. Current development is limited
to Grand Forks County, although CAMs continue to show the
potential for more coverage through around mid morning. Overall,
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Synopsis...

Ridging prevails through much of the period across the western
CONUS, with the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest residing
downstream of the ridge. North to northwest flow at the H5 level
will continue through the weekend and into next week, with little to
no support for low to mid-level moisture return into the region. As
such, we are likely to see mainly scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with little support for organized or severe
convection. Any stronger storms would be tied to diurnal heating,
but could potentially support small hail and gusty winds.

Ensemble guidance develops an upper low by the early to middle part
of next week, which could serve to help flatten the H5 pattern
heading into late next week. This remains rather uncertain at this
time, with timing being the greatest uncertainty as several ensemble
members stall the upper low before it can create any meaningful
change in the pattern. Overall, we can expect a continuation of
generally warmer than average temperatures, along with nearly daily
chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all sites. Look
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
period, with little confidence in exact location. Organized
thunderstorms are not expected, with minimal impacts outside of
shower activity. Winds remain light and variable through much of
the TAF period, with a slight increase in winds possible at KFAR
late this afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch