892
FXUS63 KFGF 162025
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with a
  slight chance (20%) for small hail up to pea size with the
  strongest storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Synopsis...

Upper level trough over the Hudson Bay continues to shift
southeastward today and tonight, with a weak short wave moving down
from Canada. This has helped develop cumulus across the area, with a
few isolated showers. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during
peak heating hours today, with a slight chance (20%) to see a few
stronger storms with up to pea size hail. Current radar and
satellite has a stronger storm over the Devils Lake Basin, with
brief heavier rain and lightning. As the sun sets and the wave moves
eastward chances for precipitation diminish along with the cumulus.
Upper level smoke will continue to move through the region today and
tomorrow as northerly flow aloft will help filter in Canadian
wildfire smoke creating hazy skies at times.

Winds go variable overnight, with dew point depressions in the low
single digits to zero. This brings the chance (20%) for patchy fog
to develop in the early morning hours bringing reduced visibility.
Confidence is low on the location and extent of fog as it will be
dependent on how cool we get overnight and how low the winds get.

Upper level ridging out in the western United States will extend
into the Canadian Rockies bringing northerly flow to eastern North
Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Temperatures cool as a result to
the 70s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s.
Quiet and dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday before
we start to get further chances for precipitation over the weekend.
Guidance introduces short waves working along the northerly flow
over the weekend and into early next week increasing chances for
precipitation.

...Isolated Thunderstorms this Afternoon...

As the short wave moves through the area this afternoon a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible (20% chance).
Weak instability of 500-1000 J/kg CAPE with effective shear of 25-
30kts ahead of the wave will help fuel storms. The lift for the
storms will be from the main short wave moving through, but also the
cooler air aloft moving over the warmer surface temperatures.
Updrafts struggle within the hail growth zone limiting the size of
any hail to up to pea size in the strongest of storms. Any storms
that develop would bring brief lightning, brief heavy rain, and up
to pea size hail. Best chances will be along and south of Highway 2
this afternoon and evening. Once we lose daytime heating chances for
showers and isolated storms dissipate along with the cumulus across
the area. Quieter conditions move in as we move into Wednesday and
Thursday. Further chances for precipitation over the weekend along
with warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions continue across the sites this afternoon, with
TVF, BJI, and GFK getting near MVFR due to cumulus development.
We expect cloud coverage to continue to increase through the
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings possible. A few showers are
possible in GFK, BJI, and TVF during the afternoon. Winds remain
out of the north gusting near 20kts at times for GFK, DVL, and
TVF. Overnight around 09-12z winds go VRB, with skies clearing
overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Spender