316
FXUS63 KFGF 151223
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
723 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Threat ends in far SE ND/WC MN by 12z Mon.

- This week drier and more stable with temps near or below
  normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The shower and t-storm area has cleared east of the area. A cold
front associated with the 500 mb short wave near Winnipeg is
moving thru the northern RRV with a weakening line of t-storms.
There has been a consistent gust front with winds 33-38 mph from
Langdon thru Cavalier to Hallock areas. This will continue to
move east and exit Lake of the Woods by 16z.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Synopsis...

Well defined 500 mb short wave moving into the RRV at 0830z with
an area of showers and t-storms. Highest instability and DCAPE
gradient has remained over our southwest fcst area. Thru 11z
storms, some locally severe, will occur in far SE ND and into
far west central MN near the ND/SD/MN border area. This is where
the focus of elevated instability is located. Northern part of
the rain area has been weakening gradually and for locations
north of Fargo impacts are minimal.

500 mb short wave associated more with the cold front is in SW
Manitoba with a cluster of storms with it. This wave will pass
thru and east of the area by 18z Mon and look for northwest
winds 10-20 kts spreading eastward behind these systems midday
and afternoon.

Next short wave upstream will drop more south thru Manitoba into
eastern ND Tuesday behind the departing short wave and in
advance of a 500 mb low that will be dropping south-southeast
from N Manitoba into NW Ontario. Will have some 20-30 pops for a
few showers or isold thunder with this wave on Tuesday.

High pressure will then move overhead Wed-Thu. 500 mb heights
will rise into western Canada mid week with warmer air spreading
north and a sharp ridge west and trough east will be located
over Canada and the northern tier of the US with our forecast
area in between and on the backside of the 500 mb trough to our
east Fri-Sun period. Warmer air will move in but warmest airmass
remains to our west. Generally dry weather but some weak
shortwaves dropping south may bring low chances for a shower or
t-storm Friday late and again by Monday.

No impacts weather wise anticipated once we have this current
system move out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 719 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Main storm area has moved well east. What we have left is a
partly cloudy sky for most with scattered mid clouds. There is a
cold front with a more consistent NW wind behind it from
Cavalier to DVL and southwest into central ND moving east and
with this there is a band of MVFR cigs. How much that continues
east with the front is uncertain, as it may scatter out with the
help of the sun. NW wind 10-20 kts this aftn.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle