058
FXUS62 KFFC 141855
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Much of Eastern CONUS is positioned in a weakness in the height
field between an upper ridge over CO/NM and another elongated ridge
extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the west Atlantic.
Little change is expected in this pattern through the remainder of
the period. Atmospheric moisture will steadily increase this
afternoon and into tomorrow. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms have begun to develop and are expected to continue
through the remainder of the afternoon. Rain chances will mainly
range from 15-25%. Aside from lower temperatures in the higher
elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs today will rise into the
upper 90s to near 100. With dewpoints in the 60s due to the mixing
of drier air aloft, heat index values will range from about 99-103
this afternoon. While these heat indices will remain just below Heat
Advisory criteria, it will still feel quite unpleasant and extra
precautions should be taken when outside.

Moisture return will continue tomorrow. As such, the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be greater tomorrow afternoon,
ranging from 40-50% at the most. Although cloud coverage will also
be greater tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will still be quite hot,
ranging from the mid to upper 90s in the peak heating hours. Heat
indices will once again reach into the 100s tomorrow afternoon, and
may reach or exceed 105 in a few locations in east-central
Georgia.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Highlights

-Hot conditions to start off but slight downward trend mid to late week.

-Increasing rain and thunder chances by mid-week and largely
continuing into the weekend.

Overall, no significant changes to the long term forecast with this
update. The main story will be the return of some much needed rain
and slightly cooler temperatures. A midlevel trough is forecast
to swing across the Upper Midwest towards the Ohio Valley Region
pushing a cold front towards the forecast area as we approach the
mid- week time frame. Both the trough, remaining present over the
Lower MS Valley, and approaching front will act as a catalyst for
increasing rain and thunder chances through much of the period.
In addition to rainfall, temperatures will be on a slight downward
trend mid to late week. Forecast high temperatures will start off
in the mid to upper 90s trending towards the mid to upper 80s by
late week into the weekend. While temperatures look to be `less
oppressive,` humid conditions may stick as moisture returns to the
region -- dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected through
the period.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. A cu
field around 060-080 has developed over the last couple of hours
and will persist through the afternoon. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be
possible in the mid to late afternoon, warranting VCSH from 20Z to
01Z. Winds will be primarily W to NW at 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the coverage of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon.
High confidence on all the other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  98  74  96 /  10  40  30  50
Atlanta         76  96  75  95 /  10  50  40  60
Blairsville     68  90  68  88 /  20  50  40  70
Cartersville    73  97  72  95 /  10  50  40  60
Columbus        76  99  76  96 /  10  50  40  70
Gainesville     75  96  74  94 /  10  40  30  60
Macon           75  99  74  96 /  10  50  30  60
Rome            73  97  73  95 /  10  50  40  60
Peachtree City  75  97  73  95 /  10  50  40  60
Vidalia         77  98  77  97 /  20  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...King