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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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976 FXUS62 KFFC 181044 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 644 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The region becomes fully entrenched in the base of an upper trof located to the north over the great Lakes and sandwiched between upper ridging over the Atlantic and over the western US. The lack of any real convective inhibitor combined with deeper moisture in place including 1.7"+ PWATs, should allow us to see well above climo coverage of showers and storms through the short term. In addition a weak surface boundary sinks south with the aforementioned trof to our north and becomes a focus for diurnal convection later today...and again on Friday. CAMs all suggesting the 18z-00z window as the most likely time period to see convection which initiates along that surface boundary over northern GA before sinking southward through the day. Not expecting any widespread severe weather as parameters in general are not too impressive, however, similar to Wednesday, cannot rule out an isolated severe or two for damaging wind. Given the PWAT values, expect heavy rainfall to be the primary risk along with lightning. By Friday..models suggest some weak mid level energy lifts NE toward the area from the Gulf Coast around the western periphery of the Atlantic Ridge and into the base of the upper trof. Combined with the stalled surface boundary, expect widespread coverage of showers and tstorms across the area during the day Friday. NBM guidance putting out 90 pops for a large portion of the area and CAMs, particularly the ARW, FV3 and NSSL WRF, basically support the idea of more coverage of storms on Friday...with potentially something more organized moving northward during the day. A deeper look into the parameter space yields the presence of a little bit of mid level energy including deep layer shear values 30kt to as high as 45kt across middle GA...which in turn would increase the likelihood there could be some severe potential on Friday. Of course this will be very dependent on how much diurnal heating can occur before storms develop and stabilize the column. The HRRR and NAMnest both suggestive of more CAPE on Friday than Thursday with values potentially exceeding 3000 j/kg in some areas along or near the stalled surface boundary..where there could be a pooling of moisture. Currently the SPC outlook still highlights general thunder but the CSU ML severe has picked up on the subtle features enough to trigger some severe probabilities. Will continue to monitor trends and communicate with SPC on future outlooks for any potential upgrades in the outlook Friday. Regardless, its summer and we typically don`t need but subtle amounts of shear to trigger a little more severe coverage. Similar to Thu, heavy rain/higher rainfall rates will again be a primary risk areawide on Friday. 30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 At a glance: -No big changes to the previous forecast -Showers and thunderstorms will be likely every afternoon. The only real change from the previous long term is tacking on another day at the end of long term that will likely have a high end chance of PoPs. Otherwise, not much has changed or varied from the previous forecast. Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range into early next week so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the 3 inch range with locally higher amounts expected for isolated areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could warrant a SVR warning with winds being the primary concern. Given MU CAPE values in the vicinity of 2000+ J/KG most of our afternoon convection will likely have strong winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning. As far as temps go, we`ll be on the cool side of the climatological norms with highs around 3 degrees below normal. Highs beginning Friday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s from north to south; areas of higher elevations may struggle to get out of the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. It`s worth noting that high temps may be significantly different from the forecast in areas where rain keeps temps from peaking during the afternoon. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A little more diurnal convection expected this taf cycle. Model guidance still honing in on the 18z-22z period as the key period, however, there is potential for some TSRA or SHRA to linger beyond 22z through 00z or so which may need to be accounted for with updates through the day. For ATL, needed to add a prob30 group in the 12z-18z window for Friday as shra or tsra may start a little earlier tomorrow which looks to be a fairly busy day with convection coverage overall. CIGS should for the most part will be VFR CU or mid level cloud debris from storms however there is a lower MVFR deck very near the metro sites this AM. Will maintain a MVFR level for a few hours this morning which will tease metro sites but should raise to VFR levels once surface heating commences. Winds will remain out of the west through this cycle with the exception of in TSRA where VRB with higher gusts is included in the tempo groups. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence on convection timing High confidence all other elements 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 85 69 87 / 50 70 70 70 Atlanta 71 84 70 85 / 50 80 70 80 Blairsville 65 79 65 78 / 30 80 70 80 Cartersville 69 84 68 85 / 40 80 70 80 Columbus 73 89 72 89 / 60 80 50 80 Gainesville 71 83 70 83 / 40 70 70 70 Macon 71 90 70 91 / 50 70 50 60 Rome 69 85 69 85 / 30 70 70 80 Peachtree City 69 85 69 86 / 60 80 70 80 Vidalia 74 94 74 93 / 50 70 40 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...30