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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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734 FXUS62 KFFC 202337 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 737 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 An upper-level trough axis is centered over the MS River Valley with north and central GA beneath southwesterly flow aloft. Something of a MCV can be seen on Visible/GeoColor satellite imagery over north-central AL, which has contributed to widespread convection spreading across much of the CWA. CIRA Advected Layer Precipitable Water imagery and the 12z FFC sounding depict deep-layer moisture across the Southeast, and with 1.8" to 2.3" of PWAT, localized heavy rainfall will be one of the main hazards with storms for the rest of today. Recent waves of heavy rain-producing storms have left near-surface soils quite saturated across much of the CWA, so localized flash flooding and/or rapid rises of creeks, rivers, and streams are possible where persistent, heavy rainfall occurs. Additionally, precip-loading in downdrafts could lead to damaging winds up to around 50 mph. Widespread cloud cover and scattered to widespread precip will keep temperatures in the 80s for the most part. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for at least part of the overnight period as the feed of moisture and broad ascent aloft persist. Overnight lows are forecasted to range from the mid-60s to lower 70s under a mostly cloudy to overcast sky. No real pattern change will take place tomorrow (Sunday) with upper-level troughing and similar PWAT values to those today. As such, expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms through the day with a peak in coverage in the afternoon and early evening. Like today, high temperatures will generally be in the 80s. Martin && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. - Slightly below normal high temperatures through the period. A fairly stagnant upper level pattern will continue through most of the period, with a ridge from the Atlantic to the FL peninsula and a trough from the Great Lakes and OH Valley to the lower MS Valley and E TX. This pattern will keep the area in moist S-SW flow with occasional weak dynamic forcing focused mainly over the NE portion of the area. As a result, scattered to locally numerous, mostly diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected. The potential for convection continuing further into the night or developing before midday will be highest over the NW portion of the area (particularly associated with vorticity maxima associated with the upper trough or any MCSs. Organized severe weather remains unlikely, but isolated storms could become strong to briefly severe with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the greatest threats. Even though coverage of convection may be a bit less over the SE portion of the area, this will be closer to the deepest moisture axis and slower storm motion. As a result, although total rainfall through the period should be higher to the NW, localized flooding may be more of a concern to the SE. There are indications that the upper trough may shift slowly to the E and begin to weaken late in the coming week. Lower heights due to the proximity of the aforementioned trough, along with increased cloud cover, will keep afternoon high temperatures mostly in the mid 80s across the N half of the County Warning Area (with 70s in the NE mountains). Warmest temperatures are expected near and SE of a Columbus to Macon line, closest to the upper ridge position. High temperatures in those areas are expected to remain mostly near 90 to the lower 90s. /SEC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Deteriorating conds exp thru the night. Intermittent -RA psbl for northern FTY/PDK/RYY thru 02Z, then primarily VCSH. Cigs initially VFR will drop to MVFR by 04-05Z, then to IFR by 07-08Z. MVFR vsbys in BR/FG likely to accompany low cigs thru 14-15Z. SCT- BKN cu/stratus at 2-3kft to linger into the aftn. Best window for TSRA chcs once again between 17-22Z. Winds will remain out of the SSW at 7kts or less. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence morning ceiling progression. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 88 70 87 / 70 80 70 70 Atlanta 71 85 70 86 / 60 80 70 80 Blairsville 65 81 65 81 / 60 80 70 80 Cartersville 70 87 68 86 / 60 80 70 80 Columbus 72 90 72 91 / 50 80 60 80 Gainesville 70 85 70 85 / 70 80 70 70 Macon 71 90 70 91 / 60 80 60 70 Rome 70 86 69 86 / 50 80 70 80 Peachtree City 70 86 69 87 / 40 80 70 80 Vidalia 73 91 73 92 / 50 70 50 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...96