081
FXUS62 KFFC 160727
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
327 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Temps are running about 3-7F degrees cooler than this time last
night thanks to the storms that covered a good portion of north and
central GA yesterday afternoon/evening. The upper level pattern
remains rather unchanged in the last 24-hours with moisture and
remnant boundaries re-circulating around a nearly stationary low-to-
mid lvl high along the AL/FL Gulf coast.

Daytime heating will trigger another round of showers/storms this
afternoon within moist/unstable airmass. Max temps will be a few
degrees lower than Monday but dewpts are up a few degrees resulting
in fairly similar peak Heat Index values today in the 98-105F range
with isolated values as high as 108F possible.

By tomorrow (Wednesday), we begin to see the affects of a deeper
longwave upr trough digging across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
regions. Better synoptic-scale forcing enters the area as remnant
low-lvl cold pools/boundaries from upstream MCS`s become more of a
focus for convection across north/central GA. Overall severe threat
remains low but cannot rule out isolated stronger wind gusts as
MUCAPE gets up into the 1500-2000 J/KG range and low to mid-lvl
winds increase ahead of upr trough.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

At a glance:

-We begin our much needed heat break.

-Showers and thunderstorms will be likely every afternoon.

The long term kicks off on Wednesday and temps are still expected to
climb into the mid 90s, but by Thursday the front will have worked
it`s way far enough south that we should see temps fall back into
the low 90s and upper 80s; with some high 70s in our mountain areas.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
2 inch range with locally higher amounts expected for isolated
areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few
afternoon storms could warrant a SVR warning with winds being the
primary concern. Given MU CAPE values in the vicinity of 2000+ J/KG
most of our afternoon convection will likely have strong winds,
periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the night and
into the morning as mid to high-level "debris" clouds from earlier
convection slides across the area. Convective initiation should be
similar to Monday (between 17-19z) with all TAF sites warranting
at least a PROB30 during the afternoon hours. Saw some higher wind
gusts with storms yesterday, and will continue that potential
threat for today. Conditions overall improve after 23-00z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high on storm potential and timing.
Low on any stratus developing through 12z.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  73  94  72 /  40  20  60  50
Atlanta         93  75  92  73 /  50  30  70  60
Blairsville     88  68  87  67 /  50  30  80  70
Cartersville    94  72  94  71 /  40  30  80  60
Columbus        95  75  96  75 /  50  20  70  40
Gainesville     93  74  92  73 /  40  30  70  50
Macon           95  73  96  74 /  50  20  60  40
Rome            95  73  94  71 /  40  30  80  60
Peachtree City  95  73  94  71 /  40  30  70  50
Vidalia         95  76  96  76 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...DJN.83