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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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937 FXUS62 KFFC 200142 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 942 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 932 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Forecast remains on track. Line of nearly stationary showers and embedded thunderstorms is currently bisecting the forecast area. With PWATs of approximately 2", cells remain efficient rainfall producers, even after the loss of diurnal heating and best instability. Will be keeping an eye on the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding and quick responses from rivers and streams across the Metro over the next couple of hours. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Thunderstorms are popping up in central GA and north GA where the sun was able to peek through the cloud cover today. Meanwhile the metro down to a line from Macon to Columbus remains thunderstorm free as cloud cover is just now starting to break up. CAMs are indicating that these areas will still experience showers and thunderstorms but they may be a bit more delayed than the north and central Georgia thunderstorms. We still have plenty of sfc based CAPE in the area with values around 2000-3000 with pockets of 4000 in south Georgia. This is expected to surge northward in a couple of hours once cloud cover begins to clear. Effective Shear values ~20kts exist over central and north GA which is the main reasoning for the storms ability to have upward growth and movement today and also why they have become more organized. Low-level lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 degrees C/km are also evident across south and central GA today which will lead to some of these storms being able to produce cores that could produce pea to quarter size hail. We are already seeing evidence of storms going up pretty efficiently today. Lastly another parameter we`ve been watching is the PWATs. They are currently at ~2-2.2" which is well above average for this time of year. This is increasing the flooding threat for the area this afternoon and wouldn`t be surprised if we end up having to issue a flash flood warning today. In combination with those lapse rates we could also see the threat for downbursts today. Overall we are looking at damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding, hail up to an inch and frequent lightning as the main threats for today. Looking at the overnight, some lingering showers could hang on which inc combination with earlier rainfall is likely to lead to lower cloud bases ~500-600ft and lower visibilities down to ~3-4SM. With not much movement with the stationary front parked over the metro, these low clouds will have a hard time moving on tomorrow, resulting in lower clouds as late as 11am-12pm before thunderstorm chances pick up again for the afternoon centered around the frontal area. One positive of this is temps have been lower today with highs in the low to mid 80s expected and the same for tomorrow. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. - Slightly below normal high temperatures through the period. A fairly stagnant upper level pattern is forecast to continue through the period, with a ridge from the Atlantic to the FL peninsula and a trough from the Great Lakes and OH Valley to the lower MS Valley and E TX. This pattern keeps the area in moist S-SW flow with occasional weak dynamic forcing focused mainly over the NE portion of the area. This, in turn, translates into scattered to locally numerous, mostly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The potential for convection continuing further into the night or developing before midday will be highest over the NW portion of the area. Organized severe weather remains unlikely, but isolated storms could become strong to briefly severe with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the greatest threats. Even though coverage of convection may be a bit less over the SE portion of the area, this will be closer to the deepest moisture axis and slower storm motion. As a result, although total rainfall through the period should be higher to the NW, localized flooding may be more of a concern to the SE. Lower heights due to the proximity of the aforementioned trough, along with increased cloud cover, will keep afternoon high temperatures mostly in the mid 80s across the N half of the County Warning Area. Warmest temperatures are expected SE of Macon, closest to the upper ridge position. /SEC SEC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 742 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Deteriorating conds exp thru the TAF pd. Nearly stationary TSRA likely to continue to impact PDK/FTY/RYY/AHN thru 02Z. -RA psbl in its wake thru 04-05Z. Cigs initially VFR will drop to MVFR by 07Z, then to IFR by 09Z. MVFR vsbys in BR/FG psbl 09-13Z. BKN 1500-2500ft cigs to linger into the aftn. Aftn TSRA expected once again from 17-23Z. Winds will be 5-6kts or less thru the pd and generally favor the SSW, but may briefly go SSE at 4kts or less between daybreak and 16Z. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 85 69 88 / 70 70 70 70 Atlanta 71 84 71 86 / 70 70 70 80 Blairsville 64 78 66 81 / 70 80 70 80 Cartersville 69 84 69 86 / 80 60 60 80 Columbus 72 88 72 90 / 50 80 60 80 Gainesville 70 82 71 85 / 70 80 70 80 Macon 70 89 71 91 / 40 80 60 70 Rome 70 86 70 86 / 70 70 60 80 Peachtree City 70 84 69 87 / 70 70 70 80 Vidalia 73 92 74 92 / 30 70 40 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...96