798
FXUS62 KFFC 132316
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
716 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024


...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Strong Bermuda High remains in place over the Atlantic, to the east-
northeast of the forecast area. A weak, poorly-defined tropical low
off the Georgia coast continues to bring Atlantic moisture into the
Carolinas and eastern Georgia, where it is gradually spreading
westward into the forecast area. The rest of the weekend is expected
to be defined be a continued warming trend and light, variable
winds. Aside from the higher elevations in far north Georgia, highs
this afternoon will range from the mid 90s in north Georgia to the
upper 90s in central Georgia. With dewpoints remaining in the 60s,
heat index values are expected to remain below Heat Advisory
thresholds through the period, peaking at around 100. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected in portions of far north and
east Georgia this afternoon.

Low temperatures on Sunday morning will be in the 60s in far
northeast Georgia, and low 70s across the rest of the forecast area.
Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer across the area on Sunday
in the upper 90s across the majority of the forecast area and up to
100 in portions of central Georgia in the peak heating hours. As
moisture continues to spread slowly westward, chances for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will have slightly
higher coverage than today. Heat index values on Sunday afternoon
will range from 98-103 degrees on Sunday afternoon, although will
need to be monitored in case an advisory is needed.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Hot temps continue into the long term. Will also see increased rain
chances Tues across central GA then Wed through Fri everywhere. The
long term picks up on Monday with temps in the upper 90s to 100
across most of Georgia. There could be a few areas where Heat
indices could exceed 105 in parts of eastern Georgia; we`ll continue
monitoring through the weekend with regards of issuing heat related
products. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s going into
Tuesday.

Tuesday will mark the beginning of a transition period for most of
the area. Temps are expected to remain in the upper 90s but a trough
in weak zonal flow will enter the south east and get a bit hung up
over the gulf coast. Showers in thunderstorms will be possible for
the southern portion of the CWA on Tuesday afternoon, and remain the
lifting mechanism for afternoon storms for the rest of the forecast
period. With the increased precip chances Wed through Fri will see
temps decrease into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Thu/Fri.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest storms set up we
could see some decent amounts. 7 day QPF totals are in the 1 to 2
inch range and would not be surprised to see some isolated higher
totals especially across central GA. Widespread severe weather is
not expected, but a few afternoon storms could be strong with gusty
winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn/01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions (FEW-BKN AOA 6000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will prevail in the region through 06Z Monday. Light
and variable winds are expected through 14Z Sunday, then light (6
kt or less) westerly (220-310 degrees) winds should occur between
14Z Sunday and 01Z Monday. Isolated showers could occur between
17Z Sunday and 00Z Monday, but the odds of impacts are 15% or
lower for all the TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
High confidence in the ceiling, visibility and precipitation
forecasts.
High confidence in the wind speed outlook.
Moderate confidence in the wind direction between 14Z Sunday and
06Z Monday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  99  73 100 /  10  20  10  30
Atlanta         75  98  75  97 /  10  20  10  40
Blairsville     67  91  68  92 /  10  30  10  30
Cartersville    70  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  30
Columbus        75 101  75 100 /   0  20  10  50
Gainesville     72  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  30
Macon           73 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  40
Rome            70 100  72  99 /  10  20  10  30
Peachtree City  72  99  74  98 /   0  10  10  40
Vidalia         75  99  77  98 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Albright