Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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728 FXUS62 KFFC 060823 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 423 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 420 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Key Messages: - Another Heat Advisory is in effect from 11am until 8 PM today. Heat indices of 105 degrees or higher will be possible within the advisory. - Frontal boundary will push into the area and stall near the ATL metro. Areas to the north will be hot, areas to the south hot and humid. Afternoon Tstorms likely to the south of the boundary. Forecast: Rainfall and thunderstorms have come to an end in most locations with the exception of eastern GA. Copious rainfall across much of the area today combined with a subtropical airmass still in place at the surface means we have some haze and potential fog issues starting to crop up in a few places. Any places we do see haze or fog will burn off very quickly with the morning sun, and these issues should be patchy at best. Aloft, a longwave trough is set up across the northern Great Plains and upper midwest with embedded shortwave/jetstreak moving through the northeast. This shortwave has attendant low that is driving "cold" front (it`s June, sorry, it won`t be cold) towards the CWA. Front should slowly push in towards metro through the evening and stall somewhere near it. This will be a bit of a demarcation line between a warm but drier airmass to the north and warm but humid airmass to the south. Diurnal storms are very likely to the south of it, which puts highest chances in central and eastern GA. PoPs are lower to the north where less moisture will be available. These don`t look like they may be as persistent into the overnight hours as our previous night, but some storms may continue a few hours after sunset. Storms may be strong, but not expecting any widespread severe given lack of shear for organization. Will never rule out a damaging wind gust or two this time of year, however. With PWATs still in excess of 2", storms will once again be efficient rainfall producers and some local flash flooding will be possible. Otherwise, heat will be the main weather story again. To the south of the frontal boundary, highs will surge into the 90s and dewpoints will be well into the 70s. This will bring heat indices into the high 100s. Some uncertainty around meeting criteria given storms could occur early enough to limit daytime heating with rainfall and cloud cover, but any locations that are allowed to "cook" will certainly achieve dangerous levels of heat during the afternoon. Add on to this that we have now seen several days of this in a row in these locations, so more vulnerable populations have not had much time to recover and may be even more susceptible. Heat advisory runs just to the south of I-85 across central GA and the southern ends of the ATL metro through 8 PM. Tomorrow, subtropical moisture will again start to filter back into northern GA. The good news is that heat products are looking less likely thanks to even more numerous afternoon thunderstorms. The bad news being the more numerous diurnal storms, though we honestly could still use the rain. Hopefully all this will put a dent in the developing drought conditions. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 420 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Humid and summerlike conditions will persist through the extended. Upper ridging will be centered to our east over the Atlantic while an upper trough dampens and remains to our north as it swings across the Great Lakes into the Canadian Maritimes by midweek. Diurnally-enhanced PoPs thus remain elevated through the week amid the moist regime within which the forecast area remains situated. With PWATs remaining quite high in the 2-2.5" range, locally heavy rainfall will be probable with any slow-moving thunderstorms amid the weak flow in place. While no widespread severe concerns are anticipated, strong/isolated severe potential with gusty winds can`t be ruled out each afternoon and evening. As far as Beryl is concerned, primary impacts obviously remain situated well to our west during the early week timeframe from Monday into Tuesday. Guidance remains varied and confidence low regarding the path of Beryl`s remnants thereafter, though the potential for any enhanced moisture affecting portions of the area by mid to late week next week will need to be monitored. High temperatures will remain largely near climatological normals in the low to mid 90s. Even so, with stubborn low-to-mid 70s dewpoints, 100+ degree heat index values remain likely for many areas, especially across central and east-central Georgia. RW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 159 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Remains of earlier convection have left variable cigs near and around TAF sites. TSRA/SHRA have likely ended for the night. Morning concern will be MVFR/IFR cigs potentially building in. A frontal boundary approaching airport will generate some afternoon TSRA chances. Winds will be on west side, mostly light at 4-8 kts, though TSRA outflow will cause some variability through afternoon. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium morning cigs, high all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 96 74 92 72 / 50 30 70 50 Atlanta 94 76 94 74 / 50 20 60 50 Blairsville 89 67 88 69 / 30 20 60 50 Cartersville 94 71 94 72 / 30 10 50 40 Columbus 95 77 94 75 / 70 30 70 40 Gainesville 94 75 91 74 / 40 20 60 50 Macon 96 75 92 73 / 70 30 70 40 Rome 95 72 95 74 / 20 10 40 30 Peachtree City 95 73 94 72 / 60 20 60 50 Vidalia 96 75 91 74 / 70 50 70 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ027-036>039-047>051-056>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Lusk