Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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456 FXUS64 KEWX 070529 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A stationary boundary that stretches across the southern Edwards Plateau southeastward into the Coastal Plains is likely to continue to assist with showers and thunderstorms development. Some storms across eastern Val Verde and north central Edwards counties are producing heavy downpours with MRMS showing 1 to 1.5 inches per hour. This trend is forecast to continue for the rest of this afternoon and likely to come to an end by sunset. Latest hires models suggest for this activity to shift to the northern part of the Hill Country including areas west of I-35 including the western part of Travis and northern Bexar counties. Can`t rule out some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms forming across the far eastern counties such as Lee and Fayette and even Bastrop Counties later this afternoon. Precipitable water values are over 2 inches and therefore, any strong storm and shower is capable of producing heavy downpours which could in minor flooding across the local roadways and poor drainage areas. High temperatures are likely to reach the low to upper 90s over most places with up to 101 across Del Rio. There is plenty humidity in place with heat index values ranging from 105 to 110. As mentioned above, once the sun goes down, the shower activity comes to an end with partly cloudy skies forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the local area and mostly clear skies along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows stay warm, ranging from the low to upper 70s. Partly cloudy skies are forecast for most areas on Sunday with increasing clouds arriving Sunday evening into Monday morning as Beryl advances to the northwest and north over the Gulf waters and gets closer to the middle Texas coast by the end of the short term forecast period. The local area should stay relatively dry for most of Sunday and Sunday evening with activity staying along the Coastal Plains. Sunday`s highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 90s across most locations and up to 103 for Del Rio and vicinity. Beryl is likely to bring heavy rains across the eastern counties and especially along and east of Highway 77 during the day of Monday into Tuesday morning. See the long tern forecast for details on weather hazards related to Beryl. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The bulk of the long term discussion will focus on Beryl and how the eastward trend impacts our overall forecast. Overnight and this morning, guidance has come into better agreement on the eventual track of Beryl and is narrowing in on the Middle Texas coast. For our intents and purposes, heavy rain will be the primary issue, however, some tropical storm force winds are possible over our extreme eastern/southeastern counties, as gusts could approach 50 mph at times. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings the center of Beryl through eastern Lavaca and eastern Fayette counties late Monday evening. The current trends favor the eastern portions of the EWX CWA, with the latest WPC QPF painting locations along the I-35 Corridor with 1-4 inches and perhaps some locally higher amounts. Further east, into our counties east of I-35 and into the Coastal Plains, between 5-10 inches is possible, with locally higher amounts also possible per the latest WPC QPF forecast. Keep in mind, Beryl will be a very compact hurricane upon landfall, so the rainfall with the storm will have a tight gradient from west to east, so totals are highly dependent on landfall location and will remain that way through the entirety of this forecast. Something to note: the guidance has finally stopped shifting eastward, so we should be starting to get more consensus on the location of the rainfall swath over the next 24 hours. WPC places most of the I-35 corridor and points east within a Slight risk for excessive rainfall (Level 2 of 4) for Monday, with a Moderate risk (Level 3 of 4) for our far eastern counties in the Coastal Plains. The threat for flooding/flash flooding continues to increase and with that in mind, we have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for DeWitt, Lavaca, Fayette, and Lee Counties starting late Sunday night and going through Tuesday morning. With regard to temperatures, it will be significantly cooler within the rain bands of Beryl, so high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s look likely over the eastern 1/3rd of South Central Texas. By Tuesday, temperatures should start to rebound as Beryl pushes northward and out of our CWA. Moist soils and remnant cloud cover and passing showers may result in below normal afternoon temperatures again for the eastern 1/3rd of the region. The pattern looks to remain unsettled into the rest of the long term period with weak mid-level flow over the south central CONUS. Showers and storms, albeit isolated, will be possible each day through the start of next weekend with highs climbing back into the 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 SHRA will end by 09Z. SHRA/TSRA may redevelop near the Coastal Plains on Sunday into Sunday night with no impacts to the sites. VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Sunday evening. Although there is a potential for MVFR CIGs overnight into early Sunday morning, have gone with SCT, for now. Better chances for MVFR CIGs develop Sunday night. Light winds for most areas tonight into Sunday, except breezy southeasterly at KDRT. Winds turn easterly on Sunday, then northeasterly at the I-35 sites Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 78 87 74 95 / 10 60 40 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 86 73 94 / 10 60 40 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 88 74 96 / 10 60 30 30 Burnet Muni Airport 76 87 72 92 / 0 40 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 102 80 101 / 0 10 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 86 72 92 / 10 50 40 30 Hondo Muni Airport 77 93 74 98 / 0 30 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 86 72 95 / 10 60 30 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 83 73 89 / 20 70 40 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 90 75 98 / 10 50 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 78 92 76 99 / 10 50 20 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for De Witt- Fayette-Lavaca-Lee. Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt-Lavaca. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...05 Aviation...04