Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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531 FXUS64 KEWX 071050 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The models have resumed the trends farther to the east with the track and faster with the speed for Beryl. The tropical cyclone will be steered around the Subtropical Ridge centered over the Southeastern States by a mid level shortwave moving through the upper level trough over the Central Plains. The latest NHC forecast shows the center will approach the middle Texas coast while strengthening to a Hurricane today into tonight, move inland there late tonight into early Monday, then move north passing just east of the US 77 corridor while weakening into a tropical storm on Monday, and move off to our northeast Monday evening. The outermost bands may produce a few showers and thunderstorms over Coastal Plains this afternoon into evening. Then, heavy rains in bands near the center move north along the US 77 corridor with some bands as far west as the I-35/US 281 corridors on Monday. Rainfall amounts up of 3 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts are possible near where the center passes with much lighter or no amounts farther to the west. WPC has shifted the risks of excessive rainfall to the east. The moderate risk (3 out of 4) has moved to just east of our area, being replaced by a slight risk (2 out 4), then shifting the marginal risk (1 out of 4) to east of I-35. With the potential for multiple inches near the center will maintain the Flood Watch for Lee, Fayette, Lavaca, and De Witt counties. Tropical Storm force winds of greater than 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are likely near the Coastal Plains and have maintained the Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt and Lavaca counties. Some shear could lead to a tornado or two over Lavaca County with the approach of Beryl. Below normal temperatures are expected in the east due to the clouds and rain on Monday. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected in the short term. Stay tuned for updates as this situation evolves. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The upper level trough over the middle of the country will lift to the northeast during the middle of the week. However, the subtropical ridge will not really re-establish itself over the Southern Plains. A weakness will remain over Texas through Friday. This will allow diurnally driven convection each day. There will be low chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Generally speaking most places will stay dry, but scattered showers may produce a quick half inch of rain for those lucky enough to get one. The upper ridge will finally build back in for the weekend suppressing any convection. With unsettled weather through the middle of the week temperatures will be fairly steady and near normal. When the ridge builds in they will warm over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR flying conditions prevail today through this evening. However, a FEW IFR level clouds linger over Central Texas early this morning. MVFR CIGs develop overnight and continue into Monday. SHRA/TSRA near the Coastal Plains this afternoon into evening remain there with no impacts on the sites. SHRA/TSRA are expected by early Monday along and east of the I-35 sites and will introduce PROB30s there. Light easterly winds turn northeasterly and become moderate on Monday at the I-35 sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 78 89 74 / 10 10 50 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 77 87 72 / 10 10 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 78 92 73 / 10 10 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 95 76 87 72 / 10 0 40 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 80 105 79 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 77 85 72 / 10 10 50 30 Hondo Muni Airport 98 77 97 74 / 10 0 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 76 90 72 / 10 10 50 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 76 83 73 / 20 40 70 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 79 95 75 / 10 10 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 98 79 96 76 / 10 10 30 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for De Witt- Fayette-Lavaca-Lee. Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt-Lavaca. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...05 Aviation...04