531
FXUS64 KEWX 071050
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The models have resumed the trends farther to the east with the
track and faster with the speed for Beryl. The tropical cyclone will
be steered around the Subtropical Ridge centered over the
Southeastern States by a mid level shortwave moving through the
upper level trough over the Central Plains. The latest NHC forecast
shows the center will approach the middle Texas coast while
strengthening to a Hurricane today into tonight, move inland there
late tonight into early Monday, then move north passing just east of
the US 77 corridor while weakening into a tropical storm on Monday,
and move off to our northeast Monday evening. The outermost bands
may produce a few showers and thunderstorms over Coastal Plains this
afternoon into evening. Then, heavy rains in bands near the center
move north along the US 77 corridor with some bands as far west as
the I-35/US 281 corridors on Monday. Rainfall amounts up of 3 to 7
inches with isolated higher amounts are possible near where the
center passes with much lighter or no amounts farther to the west.
WPC has shifted the risks of excessive rainfall to the east. The
moderate risk (3 out of 4) has moved to just east of our area, being
replaced by a slight risk (2 out 4), then shifting the marginal risk
(1 out of 4) to east of I-35. With the potential for multiple inches
near the center will maintain the Flood Watch for Lee, Fayette,
Lavaca, and De Witt counties. Tropical Storm force winds of greater
than 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are likely near the Coastal Plains
and have maintained the Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt and Lavaca
counties. Some shear could lead to a tornado or two over Lavaca
County with the approach of Beryl. Below normal temperatures are
expected in the east due to the clouds and rain on Monday. Otherwise,
seasonable temperatures are expected in the short term. Stay tuned
for updates as this situation evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The upper level trough over the middle of the country will lift to
the northeast during the middle of the week. However, the subtropical
ridge will not really re-establish itself over the Southern Plains. A
weakness will remain over Texas through Friday. This will allow
diurnally driven convection each day. There will be low chances for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Generally
speaking most places will stay dry, but scattered showers may produce
a quick half inch of rain for those lucky enough to get one. The
upper ridge will finally build back in for the weekend suppressing
any convection. With unsettled weather through the middle of the week
temperatures will be fairly steady and near normal. When the ridge
builds in they will warm over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR flying conditions prevail today through this evening. However, a
FEW IFR level clouds linger over Central Texas early this morning.
MVFR CIGs develop overnight and continue into Monday. SHRA/TSRA near
the Coastal Plains this afternoon into evening remain there with no
impacts on the sites. SHRA/TSRA are expected by early Monday along
and east of the I-35 sites and will introduce PROB30s there. Light
easterly winds turn northeasterly and become moderate on Monday at
the I-35 sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  78  89  74 /  10  10  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  77  87  72 /  10  10  60  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  78  92  73 /  10  10  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            95  76  87  72 /  10   0  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  80 105  79 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  77  85  72 /  10  10  50  30
Hondo Muni Airport             98  77  97  74 /  10   0  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  76  90  72 /  10  10  50  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  76  83  73 /  20  40  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  79  95  75 /  10  10  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           98  79  96  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for De Witt-
Fayette-Lavaca-Lee.

Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt-Lavaca.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04