789
FXUS64 KEWX 141703
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1203 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A broad, inverted upper trough will remain to the west and northwest
of the region through early this week. Some weak lift associated
with this feature may aid in the development of some light showers
out west across the Rio Grande plains today. In addition, some
isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for
this afternoon across portions of the coastal plains and Highway 77
corridor. We should see partly to mostly cloudy skies today and this
will help keep temperatures at or just slightly below climatological
levels for mid July.

On Monday the pattern remains fairly consistent across the region,
although a slight decrease in moisture levels is anticipated. While
we could see some low chances for afternoon convection out west
along the Rio Grande and over the coastal plains, the latest hi-res
models do not show much promise. For now, we will keep the forecast
dry on Monday and monitor subsequent model runs. A decrease in cloud
cover should be enough to push highs back to a degree or two above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Models are trending more stable in the early to middle part of the
week, after the deterministic runs a day or two ago suggested a more
unstable shear pattern over West and South Central TX through around
Wednesday. The more stable pattern features an eastward surge of the
Rocky Mountain upper ridge into Oklahoma Tuesday. South of this upper
ridge, weak upper troughing remains mainly over Mexico, but some
pooled moisture might still allow for a weak convective cell or two
down in the SW corner of the CWA. More likely, we`ll see a couple
days of additional dry weather, while low level humidities remain
elevated enough to perk up the heat index into the 100 to 106 range,
and perhaps a degree or two higher in a few spots. This trend is
fairly recent, but does agree with some of the model scenarios from
last week for this time-frame. For now we`ll keep out the elevated
heat index messaging as this is probably our usual peak period for
such weather. However, we may begin messaging the elevated heat
potential in the next forecast package or two should the model trends
promote any further mid-week heating.

A more consistent signal has been promoted by the model consensus
with less of a yo-yo picture for late next week--a return of
northerly flow aloft. In the latest runs both the ECM and GFS
signaled less ridge weakness over the Rio Grande region but a
southward pivot of the upper ridge axis that previously extended to
the east into OK/North TX. This opens up an increasingly fast return
to unstable northerly flow aloft and possibly an earlier onset of the
associated weak cold front previously projected for Friday. Thursday
may start off hot with some elevated heat indices, but could finish
with some outflow boundaries, pushing south into the area with the
beginnings of the weak front arriving into the northern CWA by the
evening. We took a degree of two off the top of the NBM Thursday`s
MaxT over the northern Hill Country, but the more noticeable
temperature trend should still be seen for Friday. The milder and
more convectively unstable pattern should continue through next
weekend with typically vaguely described 20-40 percent chance type
PoPs for each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the rest of today and most likely into
tomorrow. There remains a chance for some patchy MVFR ceilings to
develop, but with mid to high cloud cover remaining over much of the
forecast area this may keep low ceilings isolated. For now have only
included SCT015 groups for this possibility. Southerly to
southeasterly wind continues, with breezy afternoon winds in the
west today and tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  76  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  75  97  73 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  75  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  79  99  79 /  20  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  75  97  73 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  73  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  75  94  74 /  20  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  77  97  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...27