Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
502
FNUS74 KEPZ 142050
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Lolo Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
250 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Hot and dry conditions will continue through Monday. An isolated
storm may develop in the afternoon, but thinking is that storms
will remain west and north of the burn area. Storm chances start
to increase going into Tuesday as moisture increases as a pattern
setting up similar to about a week ago returns. Temperatures will
fall with this east to northeast flow back into the lower to mid 80s
for the remainder of the week. Precip chances over the area will
continue to be high through at least Friday.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast
in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL increasing to 12600 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 8 mph shifting to the east
around 9 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft) increasing to very good
(106400 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........5 5 4 35 35 53
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2
Temp............59 64 72 80 82 84
RH..............55 50 35 21 17 13
20 ft wind......NW 7 NW 7 N 6 NE 5 E 5 SE 7
20 ft wind gust.10 12 12 12 12 13
Mix hgt (ft)....900 900 10600 10600 12600 12600
Transport wind..NW 8 NW 8 E 9 E 9 SE 9 SE 9
Haines index....3 3 3 4 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 6 106 106 107 107
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD VYGD
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest around 7 mph in the late evening and
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL in the late
evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the west 12
to 14 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (82800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (100 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........64 64 59 49 49 35
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 0 0 0 0
LAL.............2 2 5 1 1 1
Temp............81 74 69 66 64 62
RH..............18 29 42 48 52 54
20 ft wind......SE 5 SE 5 W 7 W 7 NW 7 NW 7
20 ft wind gust.9 9 12 13 13 12
Mix hgt (ft)....11800 11800 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SE 10 SE 10 W 14 W 14 W 12 W 12
Haines index....6 5 4 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..83 83 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph becoming west 7 to 14
mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 11700 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph shifting to the east
around 9 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (84000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........20 22 44 61
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 30 70
LAL.............1 1 3 5
Temp............61 68 80 82
RH..............51 40 22 18
20 FT wind......W 6G10 NW 6G10 N 6G10 W 8G16
Mix hgt (ft)....1000 1000 11500 11700
Transport wind..NW 10 NW 10 NE 9 E 9
Haines index....3 3 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 84 77
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418037.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov