Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
744
FNUS74 KEPZ 062348
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Ridge Fire...Gila
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
548 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on July 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mainly clear skies are expected tonight as an upper ridge moves
into the region. Tonight, recovery will be fair. For Sunday, dry
and warm air moves in, resulting in near-zero precip chances and
better mixing during the afternoon. Elevated to near critical fire
danger is expected on Sunday with modest N-NW winds. For the rest
of the period, there will be daily chances for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Gusty outflows, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy downpours are possible with this activity.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......11900 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (154300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(4500 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........21 21 10 8 8 9
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............77 69 64 62 60 58
RH..............15 20 24 25 26 30
20 ft wind......NW 8 NW 8 NW 5 W 5 W 5 W 5
20 ft wind gust.16 16 12 9 9 9
Mix hgt (ft)....11900 1900 500 500 500 500
Transport wind..NW 13 NW 13 W 10 W 10 W 11 W 11
Haines index....6 6 6 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..154 54 5 5 5 5
Ventrate Cat....EXNT FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 15000 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 11 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (31000 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(228100 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........7 2 5 19
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............57 69 80 84
RH..............31 25 11 9
20 FT wind......NW 5G9 NW 6G15 NW 9G16 NW 10G21
Mix hgt (ft)....500 3100 11300 15000
Transport wind..NW 11 NW 11 N 19 NW 20
Haines index....6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 31 198 297
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
early in the evening.
Mixing height.......13700 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (273600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(5900 knot-ft) in the late evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........17 24 15 10
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............81 68 63 59
RH..............9 15 31 42
20 FT wind......NW 10G21 NW 7G16 NW 5G12 NW 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....13700 700 500 500
Transport wind..NW 18 NW 18 NW 12 NW 13
Haines index....6 6 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..274 14 6 6
Ventrate Cat....EXNT POOR POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Chance of rain showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 14400 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 11 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(172600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........4 2 9
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 30
LAL.............1 1 4
Temp............57 71 80
RH..............37 21 11
20 FT wind......NW 6G13 N 6G15 NW 9G18
Mix hgt (ft)....500 5400 14400
Transport wind..NW 11 NW 17 NW 12
Haines index....6 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 79 173
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds around 7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...NMCD
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417539.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmcdc@firenet.gov