596
FXUS64 KEPZ 101711
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1111 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Today will be another active day of strong thunderstorms
developing across the area in the afternoon producing periods of
hail, strong gusty winds, blowing dust, and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Mountain areas will see the most storm activity with a
potential for flooding from heavy rainfall. Widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity is also expected again on Thursday. Drier
air moving into the area will reduce chances for rain and
thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Moisture will return by next
week for increased rain and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Another active day of strong thunderstorms generating periods of
hail, strong gusty winds, blowing dust, and moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected this afternoon and evening. The basic weather
pattern that helped generate yestersday`s strong storms remains in
place over the state. Small impulses are dropping south over the
area as part of a circulation around a high still anchored near
the west coast. These impulses will help trigger thunderstorms in
an unstable environment that has sufficient shear, bouyancy to
enhance storm development. A low level east flow continues to
bring in moisture to sustain and fuel strong to severe
thunderstorm development over the local area.

Numerous storms will develop over the mountains, especially the
Sacramento Mountains, around mid day. Strong outflows from these
storms will generate additional scattered storms across the
lowlands later in the afternoon. From a rainfall perspective, the
mountain areas will see the greatest amounts of rain that could
lead to flooding along drainages and mountain streams. A flash
flood watch remains in effect this afternoon and evening for
possible excessive rainfall causing flooding, especially near
sensitive recent wildfire burn scars. For the desert lowlands,
high based storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph along with considerable blowing dust that could
reduce visibilities to less than a mile. The NWS Storm Prediction
Center has highlighted the local area for a marginal risk of
severe weather due to the potential for strong winds.

On Thursday, the dome of high pressure over California and Nevada
will begin shift eastward toward the Four Corners region and
Colorado. Impulses embedded in the circulation around the high
will still provide an decent environment for strong storm
development across the area on Thursday, but the focus may shift
slightly more to the west as drier upper level and mid level air
begins to move into the area from the east.

Friday and Saturday will be less active weather days as the dome
of high pressure completes its transition to re-center over
Colorado. this will place the area under an easterly flow pattern
aloft that will tap drier continental air and move it into the
state. Deeper moisture will be pushed further west into Arizona
with an increase in thunderstorm activity expected in that state.
Locally, with drier more stable conditions in place, thunderstorm
development will be restricted to mountain zones and areas
generally west of the Continental divide toward the Arizona state
line. During period of weather temperatures are expected to remain
near or slightly above seasonal averages, meaning upper 90s to
near 100 for the desert lowlands.

The forecast becomes more uncertain for the long term outlook
periods of Sunday and the first part of next week. Long term
models project that dome of high pressure will remain in place
over Colorado, but will become more ill-defined. Deeper moisture
is expected to move back into the state for increased rain
chances. In addition, models project that a weak low pressure
circulation will develop over New Mexico and stall out over the
state for several days. This low could enhance thunderstorm
development and facilitate a return of widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity to the region with a potential for heavy
rain and possible flooding. This forecast remains uncertain at
this time, but bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

CU development is underway in the Sacramento Mtns, building into
scattered storms early this afternoon. The higher terrain activity
drifts into the lowlands from N/NE during the evening with strong
gusts over 40kts possible. VCTS added for all TAF sites beginning
at 20/21z, lasting until 2/3z. Storms may lower VIS to 4SM or
less due to heavy rain or blowing dust like what was seen
yesterday. Amendments possible as we monitor radar trends and
ground obs. Prevailing winds from E-SE at 5-10kts, becoming gusty
near 20kts later today. Winds relax overnight with some
variability as convection dissipates. A few showers may redevelop
(30% chance) overnight near KDMN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Fire concerns will remain lower through the period as southeast
surface winds keep low level moisture in place with minimum RH
values in the upper teens and 20s for the lowlands and 30s and 40s
in the mountains. There will be a daily chance for numerous
mountain and scattered lowland showers and thunderstorms with the
greatest coverage expected this afternoon and again on Thursday.
These storms will produce strong wind gusts and blowing dust along
with hail and moderate to heavy rainfall. Temperatures will
remain near average during this time. Slightly drier air moves in
for Fri/Sat, reducing thunderstorm coverage to main areas west of
the continental divide. Another moisture push arrives early next
week, resulting in more widespread thunderstorm activity. Winds
through the period will be on the light side except near
thunderstorms. Vent rates will be good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  75  98  76 /  50  40  30  20
Sierra Blanca            91  67  90  66 /  40  30  20  10
Las Cruces               98  70  97  71 /  50  50  30  30
Alamogordo               94  65  92  65 /  60  40  40  20
Cloudcroft               70  49  69  49 /  80  40  80  20
Truth or Consequences    95  69  94  69 /  40  30  50  30
Silver City              90  64  88  64 /  50  40  80  60
Deming                   98  69  97  69 /  50  50  30  50
Lordsburg                98  70  98  71 /  40  50  50  60
West El Paso Metro       96  75  96  75 /  50  40  30  20
Dell City                93  68  94  68 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Hancock             98  72  97  71 /  40  30  20  10
Loma Linda               90  67  89  67 /  50  30  30  10
Fabens                   98  73  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Santa Teresa             95  70  95  72 /  50  40  30  30
White Sands HQ           95  72  94  73 /  60  50  40  30
Jornada Range            95  65  94  67 /  50  40  40  30
Hatch                    98  67  97  68 /  50  40  40  40
Columbus                 99  71  97  72 /  50  40  20  50
Orogrande                93  68  92  68 /  60  30  40  20
Mayhill                  80  54  80  54 /  90  20  80  20
Mescalero                80  54  80  54 /  80  30  80  20
Timberon                 79  53  78  53 /  80  30  70  20
Winston                  87  57  86  57 /  50  30  70  40
Hillsboro                93  65  91  66 /  50  50  60  60
Spaceport                95  63  92  64 /  50  40  40  30
Lake Roberts             89  60  89  59 /  50  30  80  60
Hurley                   93  64  92  64 /  40  40  70  50
Cliff                    99  64  99  64 /  40  30  80  50
Mule Creek               95  66  93  67 /  30  30  70  60
Faywood                  92  65  90  66 /  50  50  60  50
Animas                  100  69  99  69 /  40  50  50  70
Hachita                  98  67  97  69 /  40  50  30  60
Antelope Wells           98  68  97  69 /  50  50  40  70
Cloverdale               94  67  93  67 /  50  40  50  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson