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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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006 FXUS64 KEPZ 071728 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1128 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Drier conditions and building high pressure will generate hot near record high temperatures for today with values between 103 and 108 for the desert lowlands. Moisture will begin to return to the region on Monday with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected each day next week. The increased moisture and clouds will also result in lower temperatures closer to seasonal averages for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 It will be a hot dry day across southern New Mexico and far west Texas today. Drier air has moved into the area to limit shower and thunderstorm development with precipitable water values well below an inch today. In addition, an extension of the dome of high pressure on the west coast will build over the area, resulting in stable conditions that will allow day time temperatures to soar to near record levels across the area this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be between 103 and 108 degrees this afternoon. A heat advisory will be in effect today for most of the lowlands of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Chances for rain are almost non-existent with only a few build ups of clouds over the mountains expected in the afternoon. Monday will see cooler temperatures are as the extension of the high moves out of the local area. Also, moisture will begin to move back into the region behind a cool front pushing in from the east. Precipitable water values will be increasing back up to an inch by Monday evening which may indicate a sufficient amount of atmospheric moisture for shower and thunderstorm development for areas mostly east of the Rio Grande and in the higher terrain. Rain amounts will be light and spotty for most areas with higher amounts possible in the mountains. The increased moisture and cloudiness will moderate temperatures back down to near seasonal averages of upper 90s to near 100 for the desert lowlands. By Tuesday, the dominant high pressure dome will remain centered just to our west over California and Nevada. Circulation around the high will place New Mexico under a northerly flow aloft and at the mid levels while a low level easterly to southeasterly flow brings in additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Weak embedded impulses in the northerly flow aloft will help enhance shower and thunderstorm development over the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Mountain areas will see greater frequency of storms and rain amounts which will likely impact sensitive wildfire burn scars in the area. The lowlands will see scattered rain amounts that will be generally on the light side. Strong wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible near thunderstorms. Very little movement in the dome of high pressure is expected for Wednesday and Thursday with the weather pattern basically repeating for the area with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier rain amounts expected in the mountains. Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages both days which is still very warm. The dome of high pressure will re-center over Colorado Friday and Saturday, placing the local area under an easterly flow. the low level flow will continue to tap Gulf of Mexico moisture and transport it into the desert Southwest through next weekend. Scattered afternoon and night time showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with a greater coverage and frequency expected to shift more to areas west of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW-SCT250. The winds will be generally light and variable through much of the period. However, the winds will become breezy to low end windy 15 to 25 kts with gust up to 34 kts and out from the north northeast at KTCS after 09Z Monday. They will also become breezy while out from the north northeast after 15Z Monday across the rest of the terminals. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Hot and dry conditions are expected today as high pressure builds over the area. Minimum RH values are expected to be below 15 percent, however winds will remain below critical values. Moisture will return to eastern areas on Monday with a few thunderstorms possible mainly east of the Rio Grande. As moisture spreads westward, afternoon and evening thunderstorm development will become more widespread Tuesday through Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm development will become more prevalent west of the Rio Grande by Friday and next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 108 76 102 74 / 0 0 10 30 Sierra Blanca 99 68 95 65 / 0 0 30 40 Las Cruces 106 71 101 69 / 0 0 10 40 Alamogordo 102 65 97 63 / 0 0 30 30 Cloudcroft 80 49 71 48 / 0 10 60 50 Truth or Consequences 103 69 95 66 / 0 0 20 40 Silver City 97 65 95 63 / 10 10 30 40 Deming 105 69 101 68 / 10 10 10 40 Lordsburg 103 70 103 68 / 0 0 20 30 West El Paso Metro 105 74 99 72 / 0 0 10 40 Dell City 104 69 95 67 / 0 0 20 30 Fort Hancock 107 71 102 70 / 0 0 20 40 Loma Linda 97 68 91 64 / 0 0 20 30 Fabens 107 74 101 71 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Teresa 104 71 98 69 / 0 0 10 40 White Sands HQ 103 74 98 71 / 0 0 20 40 Jornada Range 103 66 98 65 / 0 0 20 40 Hatch 106 66 100 65 / 0 0 20 40 Columbus 104 74 101 70 / 0 10 10 40 Orogrande 101 68 95 67 / 0 0 20 40 Mayhill 92 54 77 54 / 0 10 60 40 Mescalero 90 54 80 52 / 0 10 60 40 Timberon 89 54 81 52 / 0 0 50 40 Winston 95 56 88 54 / 0 0 30 40 Hillsboro 101 66 94 63 / 0 0 30 50 Spaceport 102 64 96 62 / 0 0 30 40 Lake Roberts 97 60 94 57 / 10 10 40 40 Hurley 100 65 98 63 / 10 10 30 30 Cliff 106 64 106 63 / 10 10 30 30 Mule Creek 99 67 99 65 / 10 10 20 30 Faywood 99 66 95 63 / 10 10 30 40 Animas 103 70 103 68 / 0 0 20 30 Hachita 102 70 101 65 / 0 0 20 40 Antelope Wells 102 69 101 66 / 10 10 20 40 Cloverdale 97 66 98 65 / 10 10 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407-409>411-417- 427>429. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira