340
FXUS64 KEPZ 152041
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
241 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Mostly dry conditions with very warm temperatues will occur again
today and Tuesday. A few showers and thunderstorms may occur over
portions of southwest New Mexico while the rest of the area
remains dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue the rest of this
afternoon and again tomorrow. High pressure over the western U.S.
remains the dominate feature for the region. Easterly flow along
the southern part of the high has brought drier air into the area
that has been slow to moisten back up. Precipitable water values
remain below an inch today and tomorrow which is indicative of an
atmosphere too dry to support anything other than a few isolated
weak storms in the afternoon and early evening. The most likely
areas for isolated storms will be the Gila Region and Bootheel
(Grant and Hidalgo counties). Brief thunderstorms may occur in
southern Hudsepth counties. Rain amounts from any of theSome isolated thunderstorms are possible for Grant
and Hidalgo counties in the afternoon. se storms will light and
spotty. The dry conditions will also result in above normal day
time temperatures with lower 100s and upper 90s expected across
the lowlands. The El Paso metro area could see temperatures near
103 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

On Wednesday, the center of the dominant high circulation will
shift more over Utah, placing the local area under more northerly
flow aloft. In addition, additional moisture will be flowing in
from the east and south, raising precip water values above an inch
needed to sustain thunderstorm development. In addition, weak
impulses embedded in the northerly flow will help enhance
thunderstorm development Wednesday through the end of the week.

With increased moisture in the area shower and thunderstorm
activity will become more widespread across the area as we head
toward the end of the week. Periods of heavy rainfall will occur
with stronger storms that could lead to localized flooding,
especially along recent wildfire burn scars. The increased
moisture and rain chances will result in cooler temperatures later
in the week with afternoon values running a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon as upper level high
pressure controls our weather. We will have unlimited ceilings
today and tonight with just a few afternoon build up of clouds.
With the ridge aloft, our winds will be generally light today and
tonight. The winds will be from the southeast to south this
afternoon and evening becoming light and variable overnight.
Temperatures will run a little above average and for your
planning purposes, high temperatures on Tuesday will be a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Gradually increasing moisture will generate isolated to scattered
thunderstorms for portions of the Gila Region and the Bootheel of
New Mexico. The rest of the area will remain dry today and again
on Tuesday. Minimum RH`s will be in the teens across the lowlands
with 20s mountains. Winds will remain light with a general south
to southeasterly direction during the day with light and variable
drainage winds overnight. As moisture increases later in the week
RH values will increase to 20s lowlands and 30s and 40s
mountains. Rain chances will increase later in the week with
scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible by the end of the
week with some periods of heavy rainfall. Vent rates during the
day will range from good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 103  78 101 /  10  10  20  30
Sierra Blanca            67  94  70  94 /  10  10  20  30
Las Cruces               72 103  73 101 /  10  10  30  30
Alamogordo               70 100  70  97 /  10  10  20  30
Cloudcroft               53  78  54  75 /  10  30  20  60
Truth or Consequences    71 101  73  98 /  10  20  40  50
Silver City              65  93  65  94 /  30  50  50  70
Deming                   70 102  70 100 /  10  20  40  30
Lordsburg                70  99  70 100 /  40  50  50  60
West El Paso Metro       76 101  77 100 /  10  10  30  30
Dell City                70 100  71  99 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Hancock             71 101  73 101 /  10  10  20  30
Loma Linda               68  94  70  93 /   0  10  20  40
Fabens                   73 101  75 101 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa             72  99  72  99 /  10  10  30  30
White Sands HQ           74 100  76  99 /  10  10  20  40
Jornada Range            70 101  71  99 /  10  10  20  50
Hatch                    70 103  71 101 /  10  20  30  40
Columbus                 74 101  72 100 /  20  20  60  30
Orogrande                69  98  71  96 /   0  10  20  40
Mayhill                  58  89  59  84 /  10  20  20  60
Mescalero                58  89  59  85 /  10  30  20  70
Timberon                 56  86  57  83 /   0  20  20  60
Winston                  60  93  61  91 /  20  50  40  70
Hillsboro                68  98  70  96 /  20  40  40  60
Spaceport                68 101  69  98 /  10  20  20  50
Lake Roberts             62  94  61  93 /  30  60  50  80
Hurley                   65  97  64  96 /  20  50  50  60
Cliff                    65 103  64 102 /  30  60  50  70
Mule Creek               68  96  67  96 /  30  60  50  80
Faywood                  68  97  68  95 /  20  40  40  60
Animas                   70  99  69 100 /  40  50  60  60
Hachita                  69  99  68  99 /  30  50  60  40
Antelope Wells           68  96  67  97 /  40  60  60  60
Cloverdale               63  90  64  92 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen