828
AXPZ20 KNHC 060331
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPCIAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 79N/80N moving west at
15-20 kt. Scattered showers may be active north of 05N between
78W and 82W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 08N118W. The ITCZ extends from 08N118W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N E of 93W,
and from 06N to 12N between 107W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta is centered
close to Socorro Island near 18.4N 111.6W at 06/0300 UTC, moving
west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. No
significant convection remains near the center of the system.
Wave heights remain 8 to 10 ft in the area around Socorro Island,
to the north of the center, but are subsiding. The low will
continue to weaken through Sat, and will likely dissipate
altogether through late Sat.

Farther north, moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow
across the northern Gulf of California persists due to relatively
lower pressure over the southern Colorado River Valley.
Elsewhere across Mexican offshore waters, a weak pressure pattern
across the region is supporting light to gentle breezes and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, aside from moderate winds pulsing to fresh over
the northern Gulf of California and off Cabo San Lucas, the
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through
mid week across Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh SW winds reaching the offshore waters of western Panama and
Costa Rica beyond about 90 nm off the coast. Seas were estimated
to be at least up to 7 ft in this area, with a component of SW
swell. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing off the Osa
Peninsula of southwest Costa Rica, due to convergent SW flow
south of the monsoon trough and ahead of the approaching tropical
wave. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate SW
combined seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds across the western
Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters will diminish into Sat.
Associated combined seas to 8 ft will linger through late Sat.
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate combined seas in
SW swell will persist thereafter through mid week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast
waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough
seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent ship and buoy observations along with earlier
scatterometer data indicate fresh to occasionally strong S to SW
winds west of the Galapagos to 100W. Combined seas are estimated
to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Farther west, 1018 mb high
pressure is centered near 30N130W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate winds across the basin, as noted in latest
scatterometer satellite passes. Moderate seas prevail across the
whole area.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W
into Sun. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to
subside slightly by late Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period
south swell. Farther north, a trough will develop near 20N120W
early in the week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5
to 7 ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to the
northwest through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of
125W.

$$
Christensen