517
FXUS66 KEKA 201149
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
449 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Interior temperatures creep back up into the triple
digits today, and there is a slight chance for thunderstorms in
Trinity county this afternoon. A warming and drying trend develops
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Shortwave ridging continues to build aloft today,
bringing triple-digit temperatures to much of the interior. Above
normal afternoon temperatures are forecast to persist into early
next week. A push of mid- level monsoonal moisture will move in
from the SE today and be accompanied by the passage of a
shortwave trough just offshore this evening. Some elevated
instability exists late this afternoon, although model soundings
across much of the interior show a capped environment. Latest
model guidance is indicating a weaker cap over NE Trinity and
eastern Del Norte, primarily along the border with Siskiyou
county. These areas look like they have the best chance for
convective initiation...although while there is potential,
confidence remains low on whether storms will develop or not.
Guidance remains split on the balance of cap strength vs
instability. Moisture exits to the NE Sunday, with a warming and
drying trend persisting next week as ridging strengthens aloft.


&&

.AVIATION...IFR to LIFR conditions will continue along the coast
through the day as the marine layer deepens due to an influx of
moisture from an upper level low. Visibilities could increase
through the day but with the IFR/LIFR conditions mostly due to lower
ceilings at coastal terminals. This afternoon gusty north to north
westerly winds will affect all terminals. VFR conditions are
expected for Ukiah.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will continue to build in the marine waters
through the weekend and into the middle of next week as the pressure
gradient tightens along the coast of Northwest California. The
southern marine zones will continue to have advisory level winds
with steep seas while advisory level winds and seas are forecast to
spread to the northern outer waters through today. A Gale Watch is
in effect for the outer marine zones beginning late Sunday night and
continuing into early the week as north winds increase. NBM 4.2
probabilities indicate that a solid half of the outer waters stand a
50 percent chance or more of max sustained north winds greater than
35-40 kt range.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ470.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png