Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
233 FXUS66 KEKA 162134 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 234 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather with temperatures near seasonal normals expected through the work week. This weekend and into early next week temperatures are expected to warm above normal once again. && .DISCUSSION...This afternoon a fairly robust short wave is moving up the west side of the ridge and into northwest CA. This will bring cooler temperatures to the inland areas and will reinforce the onshore flow keeping the coastal clouds in place. Inland areas are seeing highs around 5 degrees cooler than on Monday. Wednesday morning the shortwave starts to move out of the area and this may help break up the marine layer. This may cool temperatures a degree or two more than today. Wednesday night another shortwave is expected to bring some drizzle to the coastal areas and this will keep the inland areas near or slightly below seasonal normals. Thursday and Friday most of the ensemble clusters are in agreement on the ridge slowly edging back towards the west coast and this will gradually warm inland temperatures slightly above normal again. For the weekend there is the potential for additional monsoon moisture and this could bring additional thunderstorms. Two of the ensemble clusters are showing some instability mainly over Trinity county. The instability is slightly high on Sunday, and then diminishes again on Monday. The pattern looks favorable if there is a shortwave moving up the west side of the ridge. The Ensemble clusters dont really show much of a trigger, but it will need to be watched as it gets closer. Temperatures are also expected to warm back up above normal with highs in many of the valleys in the upper 90s by the weekend and just over 100 early next week. MKK && .AVIATION...Overcast sky cover and ceilings in the 1500 foot range for KCEC will trend to sub 1000 foot heights later tonight bringing flight categories to a solid IFR with light southerly winds through Wednesday morning. KACV has similar conditions this afternoon with overcast skies and ceilings around 1500 feet with MVFR categories likely to continue before ceilings come down below 500 feet later tonight, ushering in LIFR/IFR conditions with light southerly winds. KUKI is likely to get the usual late afternoon gusts with VFR conditions prevailing. HREF shows marine stratus advection into Mendocino county, halting just short due to geographical constraints as well as depth of moisture. && .MARINE...Low pressure offshore has disrupted the normal summertime pattern resulting in southerly winds that extend into southern Oregon and persist through mid day Wednesday. The sea state will be mild during this time with low height, long period SW swell. Winds will gradually turn northerly through the day on Wednesday as the high settles NW of the area and the thermal low strengthens inland. Breezy northerlies will build south of Cape Mendocino by Thursday and persist through the weekend. JB/TRN && .FIRE WEATHER...A shortwave trough will clip N CA today, creating a brief southerly wind surge...primarily in NE Trinity. Terrain funneled and ridgetop winds will be strongest in NE Trinity in the afternoon with gust of 20 to 25 mph for a few hours, creating locally critical fire weather conditions. There is currently a small chance for additional monsoonal moisture Saturday and Sunday. This has the potential to bring more thunderstorms to the area, but at this the probabilities are low. MKK/TDJ && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png