452
FXUS63 KEAX 070759
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures with scattered storms possible today,
  severe weather is not expected.

- Precipitation chances shift to the east Monday with the
  remnants of Beryl clipping the area on Tuesday.

- Hot and humid conditions becoming more likely next weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The weather pattern for today is very nebulous with ill-defined
features to try and key on for any potential area that may be more
likely to see precipitation over another area. Given the nebulous
nature to the pattern, have leaned more heavily into ensembles for
today`s PoPs and incorporated the HREF probabilities into the
forecast. This depicts PoPs increasing during the afternoon hours to
near the 50% range and then becoming likely, mainly in our eastern
zones, after 00Z tonight. Aggregating PoPs into longer periods of
time, 3 to 6 hour periods, rather than 1 hour periods, shows
potentially a better trend for locations. Earlier in the day, the
most likely areas to see precipitation would be eastern KS and
western MO with about 60% chance. This shifts east with time today
moving into the eastern half of the forecast area after 00Z.
Overall, with increased cloud cover keeping temperatures cooler than
normal, potential instability looks relatively weak and lack of
stronger mid and upper-level flow keeps shear relatively low.
HREF shows low probabilities of SBCAPE >1500 and 0-6km shear
>30kts across the forecast area today. Given the poor key
parameters, the threat of severe weather looks low. The HREF
shows precipitable water values generally in the 1.5 to 1.7"
range so showers and storms that do develop may produce locally
heavy rain amounts. HREF probabilities of 6 hour rainfall
exceeding 1" in this afternoon are most likely across north
central to northeastern MO where there is generally a 40 to 50%
probability of exceedance.

For Monday, the general trend is to shift things to the east as
models show the weak boundary shifting east. HREF probabilities of
greater than 0.01" show this trend well with the highest
probabilities across our eastern zones and points east through
Monday evening. Models show the remnants of Beryl likely moving
through southeastern MO. This shows up well plotting the probability
of MSLP less than 1008 MB. With the low trending fairly close to the
forecast area, there is a chance we`ll see some impacts with showers
and potentially a few storms in our eastern zones. However, when
looking probabilities of higher rain amounts, the swath of heavy
rains remains to our east. So our area seems more likely to see the
cloud shield of Beryl`s remnants rather than the heaviest rains,
which are far more likely from southern MO through east central MO,
northeast of the surface low.

For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, the upper
pattern begins to shift with the persistent upper trough over the
area weakening and shift east. This will allow the strong upper
ridge, that has been baking the western US, to start to build
eastward. This allows temperatures to start climbing in response. By
Saturday and Sunday, highs are likely to climb into the middle 90s.
Temperatures continue to climb into next week with nearly a 40%
chance of exceeding 95 degrees by Monday and Tuesday. Ensembles also
show low probabilities of exceeding 100 degrees during this time
frame as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Showers and storms near KSTJ will move off towards the east and help
clear out all TAF sites going into the overnight and morning
tomorrow. A wind shift out of the southwest will occur by the
afternoon tomorrow, with the possibility of showers and
thunderstorms once again. CAMs have continuously disagreed on the
coverage, timing, and intensity of precipitation tomorrow, but the
confidence of precipitation occurring at all TAF sites sometime
tomorrow afternoon remains consistent across previous
forecasts. As such, have elected to place a PROB30 group around
18z to loosely account for the best development of rain showers
for the area. Closer to the time of thunderstorm development,
there may be greater confidence in timing of exact storm modes
and impacts to TAF sites, but unfortunately this has not
improved since the last TAF issuance. Otherwise, after this
precipitation exits tomorrow around 0z, expecting ceilings to
lift once more with winds remaining out of the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...SPG/CDB