128
ACUS03 KWNS 150731
SWODY3
SPC AC 150730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High
Plains, on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper
Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward
throughout the day and ending the period extended from western
Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend
through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough,
stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the
period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be
over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching
from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the
southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across
the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and
southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and
buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are
likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be
displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception
is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate
cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an
environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging
gusts as the primary threat.

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the
central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture
and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive
upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow
will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High
Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms
move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant
airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe
threat.

..Mosier.. 07/15/2024

$$