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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
263 ACUS02 KWNS 190540 SWODY2 SPC AC 190539 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A weak mid/upper flow regime is forecast across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Upper troughing will envelop most of the central and eastern portions of the country while an amplified upper ridge persists across the western states. A convectively enhanced shortwave impulse/vorticity maxima related to convection in the Day 1/Friday time period may be located over the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning. Surface outflow tied to this activity could be located over southern portions of the central Plains or northern parts of the southern Plains, but confidence in this scenario is low. Further east, surface high pressure will be in place over the Midwest, with a stalled boundary on the southern periphery of the surface high extending from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across parts of the central/southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and areas of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible. Overall, vertical shear will remain weak and thunderstorm activity largely disorganized. Some modestly enhanced vertical shear is possible over the central Appalachians/North Carolina vicinity. This may overlap with surface dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating, resulting in a corridor of moderate destabilization. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt could support semi-organized multicell clusters capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Additional strong storm may develop over parts of KS into western OK and the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles during the late afternoon/early evening. Severe potential may become more probable if aforementioned outflow boundaries exist over the region, providing some focus for stronger convection. However, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2024 $$