764
ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Sunday.

...Discussion...
Little change is expected in the upper flow field configuration over
the U.S. Sunday, with ridging to remain over the West, and weak
troughing/cyclonic flow over most of the central and eastern
portions of the country.

At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone is forecast to extend from
the southern New England vicinity west-southwestward across the
Tennessee Valley area and into the southern Plains.

Showers and thunderstorms -- with coverage peaking through the
afternoon and evening hours -- are expected across a large portion
of the country.  However, with modest flow aloft prevailing,
potential for well-organized storms remains low.

One area where risk for a strong wind gust or two may be slightly
greater, will be across roughly the southern half of Arizona.
Storms developing over the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon should
move southward off the higher terrain.  With the typical dry/deep
mixed layer expected over the lower deserts, evaporative effects may
support some downdraft enhancement with the strongest storms.
However, at this time it appears that mid-level northerlies are a
bit weak to support a more organized, southward-propagating
convective event.

..Goss.. 07/20/2024

$$