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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
689 FNUS22 KWNS 170709 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin will be the primary fire weather threat for Thursday, though localized wind-driven fire weather concerns in the lee of the Cascades are possible. ...Great Basin... A weak upper-level impulse is currently approaching the Pacific Northwest per early-morning satellite imagery. This feature is forecast to crest an upper ridge along the northern Rockies through the day Thursday, leaving a trailing plume of monsoonal moisture in its wake across the eastern Great Basin. Forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough will become increasingly displaced from the region through the day; however, orographic ascent will likely support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon across eastern NV into ID and UT. PWAT values in the 0.4 to 0.7 inch range and nearly 3 km deep boundary layers suggest that thunderstorms should mostly be dry. Increasing PWAT values with eastward and southward extent should yield higher probabilities for wetting rainfall across the Four Corners and central Rockies. Areas that do not receive rainfall over the next 24 hours (which should be spatially limited) should have receptive fuels support lightning starts. ...Cascades... Low to mid-level winds are forecast to become more west/southwesterly in the wake of the upper disturbance. As this occurs, downslope and gap winds are forecast to strengthen with most solutions indicating that 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph) will be possible for wind-prone locations in the immediate lee of the Cascades. With little rainfall expected from dry thunderstorms over the next 24 hours and antecedent dry fuels already in place, localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated. Based on latest high-res deterministic and ensemble guidance, this potential appears to be fairly spatially limited to the Columbia Gorge and far south-central OR in the lee of the Fremont Mountains, precluding a broader risk area at this time. ..Moore.. 07/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$