905
FNUS22 KWNS 190706
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as
a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the
east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern
Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture.
Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon
with a risk for lightning within dry fuels.

...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies...
With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow
for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of
the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of
0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly
dry fuels and recent fire activity.

Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues
onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above
1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit
wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in
convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some
guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark
may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR
and northern CA.

Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence
in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern
periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture
in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs
suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the
potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered
storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest
some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels.

..Lyons.. 07/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$