111
ACUS01 KWNS 161630
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS PARTS OF:  CENTRAL
PLAINS...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OZARKS...AND LOWER
MISSOURI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains
to the Northeast.  Greatest severe-thunderstorm threats within that
are over parts of the central Plains and upper Ohio Valley to parts
of the northern Mid-Atlantic and western New England.

...Northeast States...
A well-defined shortwave trough and embedded MCV from last night`s
severe MCS is tracking into western NY.  Strong heating of a moist
air mass ahead of this system will result in intensification of
thunderstorms early this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward
across NY/northern PA into New England this evening.  Damaging winds
(potentially widespread) will be the main concern with these storms,
although hail and a tornado or two are also possible.  Have expanded
the SLGT risk to the MA/NH coast, given favorable westerly surface
winds and morning CAM solutions suggesting that MCS may persist that
far.

South of the main upper feature, a hot and humid air mass is present
from central PA and NJ southward.  Widely scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will develop in this area, despite rather weak
forcing.  Sufficient winds aloft will promote a few organized storm
clusters, capable of damaging wind gusts.

...CO/KS/OK/TX...
Full sunshine will lead to very deep boundary-layer mixing and
scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms along the Colorado Front
Range this afternoon.  This activity will be capable of locally
gusty/damaging winds.  As the convection spread east-southeastward
into a progressively more moist air mass, intensification and
organization of storms into an MCS is expected.  This system will
track into southwest KS and northwest OK this evening, with a
continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...Central NE...
A surface cold front is sagging southward across SD/NE today.
Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along this front over
central NE late this afternoon or early evening.  Activity will
track southward for a few hours, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts.

...Mid MS Valley...
A large and persistent area of thunderstorms has been affecting
portions of MO/IL all morning, resulting in a very large cloud
shield.  This will significantly impact heating/destabilization
later today.  Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT region to the areas
along and south of the cloud shield, where strong heating is still
possible.  12z CAM solutions suggest storms will build southward
from this MCS across southern MO/western KY and into parts of AR/TN
later today, with some risk of damaging winds.

..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/16/2024

$$