Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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844 ACUS01 KWNS 060058 SWODY1 SPC AC 060057 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible across parts of eastern New Mexico and the northern High Plains. ...Eastern New Mexico... A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern High Plains. An axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger instability, and these storms are forecast to move southeastward across the remainder of eastern New Mexico this evening. Forecast soundings over the next few hours show moderate deep-layer shear throughout much of eastern New Mexico, with 700-500 mb lapse rates generally between 7 and 7.5 C/km. Rotating cells capable of hail will be possible within this environment this evening. A few strong wind gusts could also occur. So far, the severe threat coverage has been less than expected, suggesting that a Marginal Risk will be sufficient. ...Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern Montana. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are being supported by an area of large-scale ascent. The storms will continue to move eastward into an unstable airmass over far western North Dakota this evening, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is on the weak side, forecast soundings in western North Dakota suggest the 0-3 km lapse rates could be near 8 C/km in a some areas. This environment could support a few strong wind gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 07/06/2024 $$