658
FNUS21 KWNS 191642
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor
adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across
portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest
high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous
discussion below for more information.

..Elliott.. 07/19/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/

...Synopsis...
A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain
in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level
perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the
northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and
subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern
Great Basin.

...Northern Great Basin...
Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave
trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent
over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will
allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage
through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm
speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and
well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency
for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive
fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across
portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$