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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
816 FNUS21 KWNS 171633 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms remain the primary fire weather concern across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin for today as a weak upper disturbance overspreads the northwest CONUS. A persistent upper ridge over the Four Corners will continue to limit surface pressure-gradient winds, resulting in limited potential for wind-driven fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest... As of 05 UTC, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are going across portions of CA, NV, and OR. This convection is mainly focused within a plume of monsoonal moisture between 700-500 mb that is evident in satellite imagery spreading north into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper wave. The 00 UTC OTX RAOB shows signs of this moistening trend compared to the previous 12 UTC sounding, and features steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. A combination of increasing moisture, steep lapse rates, and focused ascent should maintain the thunderstorm threat from the start of the period through late afternoon across the Pacific Northwest. Fuels across the Pacific Northwest will likely support lightning starts given negligible rainfall over the past 7 days and persistent warm/dry conditions. Portions of south-central OR may see localized elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in the wake of the shortwave trough. Ensemble guidance shows potential for sustained winds near 15 mph as RH falls into the single digits and low teens. However, typically drier deterministic solutions suggest these conditions should remain fairly localized and transient. ...Great Basin... Lift associated with the shortwave will be weaker to the southeast across the Great Basin, but orographic ascent within an uninhibited air mass should yield isolated thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows low probability (less than 30%) for wetting rainfall. While storm coverage is likely contributing to this low probability, forecast soundings show PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inch, which further suggests predominantly dry thunderstorms. Fuel guidance indicates that fuels generally remain receptive away from isolated pockets of wetting rainfall over the past 72 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$