158
FXUS63 KDVN 191744
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1244 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant summer weather is forecast through this weekend with
  only slight chances for isolated showers and storms on
  Sunday.

- Increasing humidity next Monday - Wednesday will lead to
  occasional chances for scattered showers and storms.

- Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi
  River. The Rock River will crest in the Moderate category at
  Joslin and Moline by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Beautiful July weather is expected today with high pressure
over the Great Lakes and Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. Highs
will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with continued comfortable
humidity. Near -3 C difference between 850mb temps and the
surface dewpoint indicates development of SCT-BKN fair weather
cumulus clouds by late morning/midday. Forecast lows for tonight
are back down into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The beautiful weather will continue this weekend with highs
slightly below normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. The next
chance for rain comes in Saturday night into Sunday as a
partially cut-off 500mb low pinwheels its way through the Midwest,
with the center of the circulation forecast to hold west of the
local area, across western Iowa into northern Missouri. This
system could bring scattered showers and isolated storms (NBM
rain chances are between 10-30%) to locations mainly west and
north of the Quad Cities from Saturday night into Sunday.
However, coverage should remain low during this time with much
of the area likely to stay dry. Weak 850-300mb steering flow
will lead to slow moving showers/storms and potential for very
isolated downpours.

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures warm slightly into the
low to mid 80s with the atmosphere becoming more humid
(dewpoints rising to the mid/upper 60s). Occasional chances for
scattered showers and storms (20-50%) will last through at
least Wednesday due to persistent cyclonic flow aloft and
diurnally driven surface-based instability with 850mb
temperatures only in the mid teens (C).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

High pressure will bring VFR conds and light winds through this
taf cycle.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Gross/Uttech
AVIATION...Haase