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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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450 FXUS63 KDVN 171624 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1124 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Late Morning Hydrology Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier air continues to spread across the area. - Dry pleasant weather will continue into the first half of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 We`ve devoted a lot of space on this product in the past week detailing the intricate details of the daily hazardous weather. Well, we can shorten this up for the next week, as surface high pressure brings an extended period of dry, pleasant weather. Today will see cool advection through the day, with dewpoints slowly lowering from the mid 60s to the upper 50s. Highs today, should climb to the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and south. Some mid clouds will sweep by early in the period, but the the majority of the day today should be sunny as any moisture in our atmosphere really drops through the day. PWAT values currently around 1.25 will drop to around 0.75 later this afternoon. This evening looks to be outstanding as winds decrease under 10 mph, and temperatures hold in the lower 70s through sunset. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Very little change in day to day weather is expected Thursday through Saturday, as surface high pressure remains in control with dry air keeping our weather benign. The upper pattern will eventually shift east by Sunday and early next week, showing a broad upper low pressure aloft meandering eastward from the Great Plains into the Midwest. Moisture looks to be limited with this system, but with cooler air aloft and some weak lift, we could see a few scattered showers and weak storms as early as Sunday afternoon, but more likely into early next week. Upper dynamics appear weak, and moisture generally limited in this pattern, thus the threat for strong storms appears very low for July. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 515 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Latest surface analysis has a stationary boundary well south of the area into south central IL/MO region. Latest 0956Z IR satellite has a small pocket of broken mid-level clouds across parts of central and east central Iowa. Expect the pocket of mid-level broken clouds to move southeast and impact TAF sites for a few hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light northwest-north and increase to 10 to 15 KTs by 18Z for several hours during the TAF period. No significant weather is expected at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1125 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The Mississippi River has crested at all sites, with some reaches continuing to experience somewhat stalled falls or steady trends over the next few days due to recent bouts of heavy rain, local run- off, and tributary input. L&D 19 at Keokuk and Gregory Landing will even experience secondary rises into the weekend. Tributary Rivers: The recent rounds of heavy rain on the Rock River basin will continue to produce significant rises on the Rock, but after assessing the extent of run-off and upstream flow trends, Joslin and Moline are now projected to remain below the Major flood stage. The Rock at Como will be in Minor flood through Friday evening. The Pecatonica River is projected to rise into Minor flood at Freeport IL Friday night. The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA performed a secondary crest around 11.2 feet yesterday/Tuesday evening, but is now dropping below flood stage. With the dry weather into the weekend, the Wapsi is now expected to remain in the decline mode and remain below the flood stage. Backwater effects from the Mississippi River will keep the lower Iowa River just below flood stage through early next week. Further south, torrential rainfall and run-off from Monday night may produce a large rise to action stage on the La Moine River near Colmar in west central IL by Thursday. But the extent and speed is still somewhat uncertain and will have to watch river rise trends over the next 24 hours. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Holicky HYDROLOGY...12