194
FXUS63 KDVN 171633
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier air continues to spread across the area.

- Dry pleasant weather will continue into the first half of the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

We`ve devoted a lot of space on this product in the past week
detailing the intricate details of the daily hazardous weather.
Well, we can shorten this up for the next week, as surface high
pressure brings an extended period of dry, pleasant weather.
Today will see cool advection through the day, with dewpoints
slowly lowering from the mid 60s to the upper 50s. Highs today,
should climb to the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and
south. Some mid clouds will sweep by early in the period, but
the the majority of the day today should be sunny as any
moisture in our atmosphere really drops through the day. PWAT
values currently around 1.25 will drop to around 0.75 later this
afternoon. This evening looks to be outstanding as winds
decrease under 10 mph, and temperatures hold in the lower 70s
through sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Very little change in day to day weather is expected Thursday
through Saturday, as surface high pressure remains in control
with dry air keeping our weather benign.

The upper pattern will eventually shift east by Sunday and early
next week, showing a broad upper low pressure aloft meandering
eastward from the Great Plains into the Midwest. Moisture looks
to be limited with this system, but with cooler air aloft and
some weak lift, we could see a few scattered showers and weak
storms as early as Sunday afternoon, but more likely into early
next week. Upper dynamics appear weak, and moisture generally
limited in this pattern, thus the threat for strong storms
appears very low for July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Some fair
weather cumulus clouds will expand across the eastern IA and
northern IL this afternoon, but remain SCT above 3kft.
Decreasing clouds and winds under 5 kts will be seen after
sunset.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The Mississippi River has crested at all sites, with some reaches
continuing to experience somewhat stalled falls or steady trends
over the next few days due to recent bouts of heavy rain, local run-
off, and tributary input. L&D 19 at Keokuk and Gregory Landing will
even experience secondary rises into the weekend.

Tributary Rivers:

The recent rounds of heavy rain on the Rock River basin will
continue to produce significant rises on the Rock, but after
assessing the extent of run-off and upstream flow trends, Joslin and
Moline are now projected to remain below the Major flood stage. The
Rock at Como will be in Minor flood through Friday evening.

The Pecatonica River is projected to rise into Minor flood at
Freeport IL Friday night.

The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA performed a secondary
crest around 11.2 feet yesterday/Tuesday evening, but is now
dropping below flood stage. With the dry weather into the weekend,
the Wapsi is now expected to remain in the decline mode and remain
below the flood stage.

Backwater effects from the Mississippi River will keep the lower
Iowa River just below flood stage through early next week.

Further south, torrential rainfall and run-off from Monday night may
produce a large rise to action stage on the La Moine River near
Colmar in west central IL by Thursday. But the extent and speed is
still somewhat uncertain and will have to watch river rise trends
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gross
HYDROLOGY...12