032
FXUS63 KDVN 150554
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat continues for today and Monday with peak heat indices
  between 100 to 110 F. A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide
  today until 9 PM. Additional heat headlines are likely on
  Monday.

- Another organized round of heavy rain and severe weather is
  forecast Monday PM with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for
  severe storms across most of the outlook area.

- Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi
  River with most sites crested.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Focus for late this afternoon into early tonight is on another
round of scattered storms as a 500mb vorticity max/MCV noted on
WV across central Iowa rolls across the local area through this
evening. The storms have yet to develop with convective
initiation anticipated between 4 - 6 PM and favored to the
north/northwest of the Quad Cities. There is some uncertainty on
subsequent storm organization through the evening hours due to
weak low-level shear and only modest deep layer shear. With that
said, the very hot and humid conditions with ambient temps in
the 80s/90s and mid 70 dewpoints has built MLCAPE values to
between 2500 - 3000 J/kg. Thus as storms increase in coverage
and cold pools merge there is potential for organization into a
few linear segments, which will pose the greatest risk for
scattered strong to severe wind gusts of 50-60+ mph. This is
most likely across the northeast third of the outlook area
(near the Quad Cities and points to the north and east). For
timing, anticipate scattered storms to the west and north of the
Quad Cities between 4 - 7 PM, with this activity gradually
moving to the east-southeast between roughly 6 - 11 PM. The
tornado risk is very low (2% chance within 25 miles of a point)
mainly due to the weak low-level shear. Hail is possible with
the strongest semi- discrete cells; however, with freezing
levels near 14 kft and a very humid air mass it will be
difficult to get severe hail (1") down to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

SPC has upgraded most of the outlook area to an Enhanced Risk
(level 3 of 5) due to the potential for a higher end wind
event during the afternoon into early Monday night; there is a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across the far southern tier of
counties. Confidence has increased on redevelopment of storms
and potential for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening.
An upper wave is forecast to track out of eastern Nebraska into
Iowa and eventually NW Illinois. This feature will be riding
along the CAPE gradient with extreme heat and humidity building
downstream through the late morning/early afternoon.
Environmental conditions are supportive of damaging winds,
potentially significant (75+ mph) with the strongest storms, due
to the aforementioned very unstable air mass (MUCAPE 3500-4500
J/kg per HREF), sufficient deep layer shear, and presence of
steep mid- level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km as an elevated mixed
layer overspreads the region from the west. A few tornadoes are
possible in association with any surging storm segments as 0-3
km shear near 30 kts supports development of mesovortices.

Greatest uncertainty is on the exact timing of storms with some
CAMs showing an earlier mid afternoon to early evening event,
and others holding off until the evening into Monday night.
There is also potential for very heavy rainfall with PWATs near
2". There could be a zone of training convection that leads to
heavy rainfall totals of 2-4"+. WPC has a Slight Risk for flash
flooding across the majority of the outlook area.

Cooler and less humid air will move into the region behind a
cold front by Tuesday and last through the end of the week.
Overnight lows in the 50s are forecast on several nights, giving
our air conditioning a bit of a break.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Widespread thunderstorms have ended for the night, but a few
high based showers with an low chance for lightning may flare up
from time to time, especially near BRL, but also possibly
through 08z at CID. We`re watching to see if a strong cluster of
storms in North Dakota will take shape into a severe squall
line, which could sweep into eastern Iowa and Illinois as early
as early afternoon, I have handled that wind and storm threat
with a prob30 group for now, but either way, another round of
strong to severe storms with heavy rain through the evening.

Some shallow morning fog may also form this morning, but will be
not added until we`re more certain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A broad crest on the Mississippi River is occurring from
Gladstone, IL (L/D 18) down through Gregory Landing, MO. This
crest will last up to two days. Upstream of Keithsburg, IL
river levels are falling.

Tributary Rivers:

The Cedar River near Conesville, IA fell below flood stage last
evening and will continue falling over the next week.

The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA is expected to fall
below flood stage around sunrise Monday morning. The rate of
fall on the river has slowed down due to locally heavy rainfall
overnight.

Backwater effects from the Mississippi River continue to lessen
on the lower Iowa River. The Iowa River at Oakville, IA is
forecast to drop just below flood stage this evening but then
remain near flood stage through the remainder of this week.

Very heavy rainfall occurred late Saturday afternoon and night
over the middle and upper parts of the Rock River basin. Ground
truth reports indicate a large swath of 2 to 5 inches of rain
occurred in the basin. Thus the Rock River will begin rising
with river levels approaching flood stage. There is a 50
percent probability that portions of the lower Rock River could
rise above flood stage in the next 24 to 48 hours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...08