Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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795 FXUS63 KDVN 161800 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 100 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...Midday Hydrology Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Today will be a transition day from the heat/humidity to a much cooler air mass. - Thunderstorms appear to be just south of our counties today. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River. The Rock River is now expected to see major flooding due to the heavy rains upstream in the past 48 hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The widespread storms that brought rather significant wind damage, heavy rains, and likely a few tornadoes has moved well to the east overnight. The front has not moved very far south, and remains positioned from Kirksville to Quincy, and it continues to be dealing with persistent training storms just south of Hancock and McDonough counties. These storms likely brought flash flooding earlier tonight in Henderson and McDonough, with 2-4 inches falling in that area. Today will be the transition day as we slowly advect in drier air, and eventually, cooler air. To start the day, some shallow fog is again possible, especially over eastern Iowa where skies have been clear. As the day progresses, dew points will gradually fall into the mid to upper 60s, and while not dry air, it should feel much more comfortable outside with temperatures peaking in the lower 80s north to mid 80s central and south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Much cooler weather looks to be in place through the weekend, with an upper trof building into the Great Lakes. Dry weather will persist through the end of the work week, followed by some very low pops for activity potentially on the western side of the upper trof as we approach the weekend. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are forecast through the weekend, followed by a slight increase to the lower to mid 80s for early next week. We`re all looking forward to this break in the non-stop heat- humidity-violent-heavy storms of the past week. Good riddance! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated through Wednesday. Occasional high clouds will give way to mostly clear skies tonight into Wednesday. Northwest winds will average 4 to 8 kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Swaths of heavy rain and resultant run-off produced by severe thunderstorms Monday and Monday night across the area are aggravating ongoing river flooding or producing new flooding situations. The Mississippi River has crested at all sites now, but several will experience stalled falls or steady trends over the next several days due to recent bouts of heavy rain, local run-off, and tributary input. L&D 19 at Keokuk and Gregory Landing will even experience secondary rises into the weekend. Tributary Rivers: Very heavy rainfall on the upper reaches of the Rock River basin over the past several days, as well as some localized run-off may produce Major Flooding near Joslin and at Moline by Friday. The river flood warnings for this have been posted, but there is some uncertainty that they will actually get that high and Moderate flooding may be more in line for these sites. The Rock at Como will be in Minor flood through Saturday evening. The Pecatonica River basin also received heavy rain, and the site at Freeport IL is expected to rise well into Minor flood by Friday. The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA is experiencing localized run-off from the heavy rainfall last night of 1-2 inches. It is actually jumping back above flood stage due to this process and a new warning for that site has been issued this morning. Water levels are expected to fluctuate around the flood stage through Thursday night before falling off and maintaining the fall. Backwater effects from the Mississippi River will keep the lower Iowa River just below flood stage for the remainder of the week. Further south, torrential rainfall and run-off from last night may produce a large rise to action stage on the La Moine River near Colmar in west central IL. But the extent and speed is still somewhat uncertain and will have to watch river rise trends through Thursday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...CN HYDROLOGY...12