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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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190 FXUS63 KDMX 170816 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant and dry weather through the remainder of the work week. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, but overall severe threat looks low at this time. - Additional diurnally-driven, airmass thunderstorms possible into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Its been a quiet and comfortable morning across the area as surface high pressure and widespread subsidence finally begins to set in overhead. With this high pressure in place through the remainder of the work week, expect dry and pleasant weather with sunny skies, highs in the 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints in the 50s. Likewise, winds remain light to occasionally breezy through Friday as well. Barring the unlikely event of an isolated shower or two, this will be a great few days to enjoy some time outside! At the upper levels, the overall pattern through the next few days shows the thermal ridge getting pushed back to the southwest CONUS and a large trough setting up over the rest of the US. The parent trough eventually departs east late this week, but multiple weaker waves will maintain a general troughing pattern overhead and keep the thermal ridge off to the west. While the hotter temperatures stay outside of the state through the forecast period, we will trend towards a north-northwest flow pattern by the weekend. This brings the return of precipitation chances late Friday through Saturday as a shortwave propagating through the larger scale flow drops through the state. Fortunately, with the weak troughing overhead, flow throughout the layer should be quite weak, limiting the chances for significant severe weather. Therefore, precipitation will likely come in the form of showers and disorganized thunderstorms. Of course, this is still a few days out, so the nature of these storms will be better assessed as we draw nearer. As the shortwave departs on Sunday, we are left with weak upper level low pressure overhead. With no signs of synoptic scale forcing expected, this will leave us in a pattern that is neither producing large scale lift or subsidence. Therefore, guidance is kicking out diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the beginning of next week. With marginal instability and minimal shear, these will likely manifest as scattered airmass thunderstorms that could conceptually produce gusty winds, but will want to wait to determine possible severity until closer to next week. Otherwise, expect seasonal conditions through the period with a much needed break from the heat and severe weather we`ve been seeing as of late. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period. Few light sprinkles remain over portions of northwest Iowa but pose little to no impact to KFOD as would be light and very brief, if any sprinkles even occur at the site. Light and variable winds overnight will become out of the north again increasing towards 10-12 knots with a few gusts towards 15-20 knots during the daytime Wednesday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dodson AVIATION...KCM