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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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291 FXUS63 KDLH 151935 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 235 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong thunderstorms remain possible in northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota through early evening today. There is up to a 5 percent chance of severe storms in this similar area today. - Beyond isolated showers and storms in far northern Minnesota Tuesday, a dry work week is expected. - Temperatures at to slightly below normal Tuesday through Thursday warm to normal again by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Satellite imagery and mid-level heights analysis shows a low pressure centered in the North of Superior in Ontario draping a cold front along the North Shore presently dropping southeastward into northwest Wisconsin over the next few hours. As the front pushes into a better strong thunderstorm environment away from the St. Croix Valley counties in NW WI over the next two hours, expect the best strong storm potential from 4-6 PM late afternoon / early evening today. Forecast model soundings have trended less favorable for severe storm potential beyond an isolated strong storm potentially pulsing up to produce hail bordering on the size of a quarter or a wet microbursts driving winds to 60 mph. These conditions are due to mesoanalysis of the afternoon environment showing less favorable conditions for sustaining thunderstorm updrafts. While the threat of a severe storm cannot still be ruled out, the potential has trended lower over the last 12 hours. The strong, very limited severe threat, ends after 7 PM this evening as the cold front drops south of the Northland into central Wisconsin. Winds shifting to northwesterly are already being seen on surface observations in north-central Minnesota behind the frontal passage. The northerly flow aloft will usher in a cooler airmass into the region overnight and allow some overnight temperatures to drop to the low to mid-50s by early Tuesday morning. As the colder northern Canadian low rotates through northwest Ontario tomorrow, the cooler temperatures with sufficient daytime heating will spark some diurnal showers and thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Very localized rainfall amounts to one-quarter inch and lightning strikes would be the primary hazards Tuesday afternoon mainly north of US Hwy 2. As weak mid-level forcing aligns with mid-day instability in inland northwest Wisconsin late morning tomorrow, a line of rain showers cannot be ruled out for Washburn through Price Counties from late morning to late afternoon. Strong surface to mid-level high pressure Tuesday night and cold temperatures in the low levels down to 5 C are expected to promote some overnight low temperatures Tuesday night into the upper-40s where winds decrease enough overnight. A cool and dry mid-week will occur Wednesday and Thursday before that coldest airmass shifts east of the region Thursday night to build temperatures back towards normal Friday into the weekend. A return to more southwest to westerly flow should allow increased moisture by this weekend and coincide with warming temperatures to create a return to widely scattered rain and thunderstorm potential (20%) by Saturday afternoon. This pattern of only slightly above normal around 80F and widely scattered storm chances last into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Isolated thunderstorms forming along a cold front draping through the Arrowhead and into the Brainerd Lakes early this afternoon will continue to push eastward this afternoon. BRD and DLH are the most likely terminals to have a vicinity thunderstorm through 21Z before the better chances shift into northwest Wisconsin, including HYR. Large hail around the size of a Quarter and erratic wind gusts to 55 knots are the most likely hazards from 20Z - 00Z this evening along the I-35 corridor and across northwest Wisconsin. Quiet weather sets up after 02Z this evening with all storms south of the Northland. Another round of non-severe -TSRA/-SHRA form mainly north of US Hwy 2 in northern Minnesota after 16Z Tuesday - impacting HIB and INL mostly. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Strong thunderstorms along both the South and North Shores remain expected through early this evening, creating erratic wind gusts to 30 knots. Light westerly winds persist Tuesday ahead of northerly winds gusting to 20 knots Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River Basin, extending from Lac La Croix to as far west as the Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has now been extended again through Tuesday afternoon as high water has been slow to move through the system due to the heavy rains in June and more intermittent rainfall in the first half of July. The Vermilion River has now fallen below action stage, and Lake levels on Lac La Croix and Crane Lake have already passed their crests last week, but are still elevated and very slow to fall. Lake Namakan and Kabetogama both reached their crests this weekend, and are also very slow to fall. Rainy Lake also appears to be cresting as the flood wave moves through. Both Rainy Lake and Namakan lake levels are still exceeding the rule curve, however we should see lowering water levels throughout the week even despite the spotty 0.5-1 inch of additional rainfall forecast with storms today (Monday). This additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and extend the period of high water, but is not expected to significantly change water levels. Boaters should expect high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards (including submerged docks), and strong currents in constricted areas. Some of the storms today could be strong to severe, which could lead to erratic gusts out of thunderstorms and impact wave heights, as well. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy HYDROLOGY...Rothstein