Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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972 FXUS63 KDLH 052045 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are forecast this afternoon and early evening, mainly over northeast Minnesota. - Another system will bring additional chances of rain this weekend. Diurnal rain and storm chances persist through much of next week. - High water persists across the Rainy River Basin and a Flood Advisory is in effect through early next week. See the summary at www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin for more information. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 An upper low over Wisconsin today along with a surface trough is the source of the scattered showers and a few storms over the area this afternoon and early evening. These should diminish significantly tonight, though a few showers may linger overnight over northern Minnesota. We should get another round of mainly diurnally driven showers and storms on Saturday, with decent instability but without much shear, producing brief heavy downpours and lightning. Any risk of severe storms looks limited. Saturday night through Sunday night there will be another round of showers and storms with lingering overnight showers, with the strongest activity during the diurnal maximum of the afternoon and evening, and continuing through Monday. The models are depicting increasing instability on Sunday and Monday, but also with a little more shear than today or tomorrow. The severe weather threat still does not appear terribly significant, but looks better Sunday and Monday than today or tomorrow. This active weather pattern continues through much of next week, with almost daily chances for showers and storms. We will be within an upper level trough with some shortwaves that dive through it. There is some consensus for one perhaps Tuesday night, but timing varies enough for us to have chance pops spread from Tuesday through Wednesday in the NBM, but in a diurnal pattern without any overnight pops. In fact, this diurnal pattern continues through most of this week, though ridging aloft make give us a break Thursday. The northwest flow aloft will also help keep us near to below normal for temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions this afternoon will be speckled by scattered showers and isolated storms, for which I have included some VCSH groups for the afternoon hours. They will be capable of producing brief periods of MVFR conditions, but confidence in any actually affecting a terminal is low. Fog will be the main concern tonight, with recent rainfall, light winds and mostly clear skies all contributing. Am fairly confident in IFR visibilities affecting KDLH, KHIB, KHYR and KBRD overnight for several hours, with visibilities improving back to VFR by 13z. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop once again Saturday afternoon, but should only affect KBRD and KHIB before 18z. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Light northeast winds of less than 10 kts today will gradually diminish overnight tonight. Winds will become southwest Saturday morning and increase to near 10 kts, with some gusts up to 15 knots along the North Shore, only to diminish again Saturday night. Sunday winds will become southeast to east, and increase to 10 to 15 knots on Sunday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 No updates with this issuance... Previous discussion below. A Flood Advisory remains in effect across portions of the Rainy River Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as the Rainy Lake outlet. Lingering high water from June and early July rainfall continues to flow slowly through the Rainy River Basin. Headwaters gauges on the Kawishiwi River, Basswood River, and Lake Vermilion have crested and indicate that the flood wave or peak water levels are slowly making their way through the basin. However, rises continue on the Vermilion River and Lac La Croix and downstream of those points. This has led to high water and some minor flooding on Crane Lake and Namakan/Kabetogama (Nam/Kab) lakes, as well as lake levels increasing on Rainy Lake. Per the latest IJC water level bulletin, dam operators have pulled all logs at Kettle and Squirrel Falls, and continue pulling logs at International Falls as conditions allow in order to maximize outflow through the basin. However, the sheer volume of water moving through the basin will still result in rises on these lakes due to the natural constriction of the flow. Vermilion River is forecast to crest late this week and then begin slow recessions. Water level rises further downstream on Nam/Kab are likely to continue (recent rates of rise have been an inch or two a day, this is likely greatest rates of rise and should begin to slow by the weekend), with peak water level early to mid next week. As is usual for this basin, water will move slowly and recessions will happen at glacial speeds. Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and extend the period of high water in core lakes. Boaters should expect high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards, and strong currents in constricted areas. The Flood Advisory currently extends through next Wednesday, but may need to be extended based on observed conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE HYDROLOGY...Huyck/Levens