766
FXUS63 KDDC 172224
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
524 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than average temperatures will continue through the
  short and long term forecast.

- Northwest flow aloft will keep chances of rain in the forecast
  for several days.

- Severe threat will be limited to mainly along the Kansas-
  Colorado border tonight and tomorrow night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

19Z observations and upper air analysis has a larger 595 dm high
centered around the 4 corners region with a developing shortwave
in central Colorado. Upper level winds in Kansas on the east
side of the anticyclone are out of the northwest. At the surface
winds continues to be generally out of an east to northeast
direction from last night`s frontal passage and thunderstorms
which is keeping the temperatures very temperate for July
standards as we are in the lower to mid 80s.


Tonight the main focus will be on thunderstorm development and
progression from eastern Colorado into western Kansas.
Thunderstorms have already developed in eastern Colorado and
with the northwest flow aloft they will move to the southeast
through the late afternoon and early evening hours. The
environment the storms will move into will have high dewpoint
depressions so the storms will be high based and will be more
of a downburst wind threat. HREF CAPE values will be highest
along the CO-KS border at around 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km values
will be around 30-35 kts so a few of the more supercell
thunderstorms could contain hail larger than quarters. CAPE
values drop quickly after sunset right around the time the
thunderstorm complex reaches western Kansas so any severe threat
should quickly diminish and thunderstorm coverage should reduce
after midnight. Some CAM models contain some convection through
sunrise which will be the result of a mid level shortwave
moving into north central Kansas by 12Z.

Thursday should be another mild day with southeast winds and
breaks of sun in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
With the northwest flow and a weak CAP we could once again see
some spotty showers and thunderstorms developing for areas along
the Kansas-Colorado border which will contain a gusty wind
threat. Highest POPs (which with northwest flow is low
confidence as to where the isolated convection forms) will be
mainly along and west of highway 83 where the HREF analysis
shows the strongest fgen band in the 700 and 850 mb levels are.


The general pattern with the long range ensemble members and
clusters continues to have the large upper high staying around
the 4 corners region with northwest flow in the central plains.
By the weekend both GEFS and ENS ensemble show an aggressive
trough building in the eastern CONUS which will keep cooler air
and chances of rain and storms in the forecast for much of
Kansas. Are best target of opportunity for rain will be Friday
night into Saturday morning where we will have a strong 700 mb
shortwave and cooler mid level temperatures in north central
Kansas hence NBMv4.2 POP outputs of 40-60 POPs.

For Sunday and Monday we could see some unseasonably cool
temperatures for late July as long range ensembles have a 40-55%
chances of high temperatures being less than 80 degrees on
Sunday and 60-70% on Monday. Climatologically we should be in
the mid 90s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

At the onset of this TAF period, winds were fairly light in the
08-12 knot range, generally from the east. After sunset,
synoptic surface winds will be 7 knots or less, however on the
mesoscale, in vicinity of convection, winds will be higher as
convective outflows will likely spread south and/or southeast
from ongoing storms across far west central Kansas. For this new
00Z synoptic TAF, we will keep GCK and LBL dry (no mention of
thunder VCTS or TSRA), however we will be monitoring radar
trends for possible amendments, mainly at GCK as this terminal
will be closest to convective threats this evening through the
late night.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid