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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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724 FXUS63 KDDC 161757 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1257 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - MCS potential Tuesday evening with up to golfball size hail, damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding. - Pattern shift in the upper levels will bring cooler temperatures across southwest Kansas. - Pattern shift will also keep chances of rain and storms in the forecast through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Clusters of severe storms moved through the Smoky Hill Valley overnight, with severe gusts between 60 and 80 mph. As these most robust storms move out of the forecast area in the 3 am hour, its noted by the CAMs some lingering showers and possibly isolated TS may linger as late as 5 am, as HREF 1 hr calibrated thunder falls to under 10%. Model consensus is well set on highs this afternoon still in the 90s areawide - although at the cooler end of the range of outcomes, the 25th percentile of the NBM would suggest low 90s for the better part of the forecast area. As convective outflow rolls across the K-96 corridor and north southward, with rain cooled air farther north, the cooler side of the guidance may be the way to go this afternoon. SREF shows a gradual increase in the layer precipitable water across the area from north to south today, reflected at the surface with dewpoints in excess of 65 degrees (70-90% extending all the way in to the southwestern counties). Based on the HREFs 3 hour QPF total probability matched means the most likely area for 1 to 3 inch rainfalls will be across the southern 2 rows of counties - i.e. Johnson to Pratt and south. And timing wise, the area from Johnson to Elkhart and Liberal could see the impacts from heavy rain and severe weather before 10 pm - based on tracks of the latest HREF HRRR and FV3 members. Spotty rapid runoff/flash flooding wouldnt be a stretch given the values of the flash flood guidance across the areas of a one and three hour basis. WPC excessive rainfall guidance is in the slight category or 15%. The progressive nature of the storms though will preclude any flood watch issuance at this time, in collaboration with neighboring offices. A severe risk for hail and damaging winds will also be ongoing as storms initiate in the early evening, with a timing of about 7 pm and on through midnight. Significantly cooler temperatures (by 15 to 20 degrees) are forecast through the weekend and early next week. Mainly highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Moist easterly upslope surface winds each day (60- 65 degree dewpoints) may bring some risk for late evening and overnight MCS activity. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Moist, easterly upslope flow will set the stage for thunderstorm development just west of Kansas early this evening. Westerly flow at mid levels will steer these storms into KLBL and possibly KGCK and KDDC between 03 and 08z. Wind gusts to 40-50 kts are possible with the storm line, especially at KLBL. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are forecast, with winds generally under 12 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Finch